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    Ask Sage Acquisition and Earnings Reset Could Be A Game Changer For BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI)

    Simply Wall St·02/27/2026 07:40:42
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    • BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. previously announced it would report fourth-quarter 2025 results on March 2, 2026, alongside the completed US$250 million acquisition of Ask Sage, a generative AI platform serving defense and intelligence customers, against a backdrop of expected earnings per share and revenue declines.
    • While recent quarters have seen revenue pressure, BigBear.ai enters this earnings release with an expanded generative AI toolkit for national security and a contract backlog of US$376 million that may shape how investors assess its longer-term revenue visibility.
    • Next, we will examine how the Ask Sage acquisition and upcoming earnings report interact with BigBear.ai’s existing investment narrative.

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    BigBear.ai Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

    To own BigBear.ai today, you need to believe its focus on defense, border security, and generative AI can eventually convert a lumpy contract business into a more durable revenue base. The upcoming March 2 earnings and the Ask Sage acquisition may influence the key near term catalyst: whether the US$376 million backlog and new AI capabilities translate into clearer revenue visibility, against the risk that ongoing revenue pressure and negative EPS highlight continued execution and funding delays.

    The Ask Sage acquisition is the most relevant development here, as it directly expands BigBear.ai’s generative AI offering for defense and intelligence customers just as analysts expect a weaker quarter, with EPS at -US$0.05 and revenue of about US$32.44 million. How well management explains the integration of Ask Sage and its contribution to the existing backlog could shape how you weigh the potential upside from acquisitions against continued earnings and margin headwinds.

    Yet against this expansion story, you should also be aware that revenue can remain highly lumpy and exposed to contract timing and...

    Read the full narrative on BigBear.ai Holdings (it's free!)

    BigBear.ai Holdings' narrative projects $162.2 million revenue and $10.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $454 million earnings increase from -$443.9 million today.

    Uncover how BigBear.ai Holdings' forecasts yield a $6.67 fair value, a 61% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    BBAI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    BBAI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Before this news, the most optimistic analysts were modeling revenue of about US$165 million and earnings of roughly US$11.6 million by 2028, which is far more upbeat than the more cautious view that highlights heavy reliance on a small number of government contracts and recent revenue drops, reminding you that opinions on BigBear.ai can differ sharply and that this latest acquisition and earnings update could tilt those expectations in very different directions.

    Explore 27 other fair value estimates on BigBear.ai Holdings - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

    Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

    • A great starting point for your BigBear.ai Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free BigBear.ai Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate BigBear.ai Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.