Slowdown In NWPX Infrastructure (NWPX) EPS Growth Tests Longstanding Bullish Narratives

NWPX Infrastructure (NWPX) closed out FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$125.6 million and basic EPS of US$0.92, while the trailing twelve months showed revenue of US$526.0 million and EPS of US$3.62 as earnings growth over the past year tracked at 3.5%. The company has seen revenue move from US$483.1 million to US$526.0 million over the last few reported twelve month periods, with EPS rising from US$2.97 to US$3.62, giving investors a clear read on steady top line and earnings progression as they assess how current margins are holding up.

See our full analysis for NWPX Infrastructure.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to set these results against the prevailing narratives around NWPX’s growth, risks, and profitability to see which stories hold up and which start to look stretched.

See what the community is saying about NWPX Infrastructure

Growth Slows From 16.1% To 3.5%

• Over the last five years, earnings grew 16.1% per year, while earnings growth over the past 12 months was 3.5%, and revenue growth over the same period was 1.5% per year.
• Bulls point to that 16.1% multi year earnings growth and a trailing 12 month EPS of US$3.62 as evidence that the recent 3.5% earnings growth is just a softer patch. However, the modest 1.5% revenue growth and a net margin slip from 6.9% to 6.7% show the shorter term trend is less powerful than the longer track record suggests.
  • Supporters of the bullish view highlight the history of compounding earnings. In contrast, the latest year of slower growth plus slightly lower margins forces you to ask how quickly that earlier pace can realistically reappear.
  • Putting those side by side, you get a clear tension between a strong five year story and the more muted trailing 12 month profile, which is exactly where bulls and more cautious investors are likely to disagree.

Bears argue that recent softness could be more than just noise, so it is worth stress testing how much weight you give to the 16.1% history compared with the 3.5% most recent earnings growth.

Margins Ease To 6.7% TTM

• Net profit margin over the trailing 12 months sits at 6.7%, slightly lower than the prior year’s 6.9%, even as trailing 12 month revenue reached US$526.0 million and net income came in at US$35.4 million.
• Skeptics focus on this small margin compression, arguing that if revenue growth stays around 1.5% per year and margins continue to edge down from 6.9% to 6.7%, it could be hard to match the more optimistic paths that assume margins move higher from here.
  • The bearish narrative flags the risk that current profitability levels represent a high point, and the slight margin dip in the latest 12 month window fits that concern more closely than the bullish assumption of margin expansion.
  • At the same time, steady absolute net income of US$35.4 million alongside only modest margin pressure means the data does not yet show a sharp drop, which is an important check on the more extreme versions of the bearish case.

Skeptics warn that even small moves in margin matter when revenue growth is only 1.5% per year, so this 6.7% versus 6.9% comparison is central to their caution.

🐻 NWPX Infrastructure Bear Case

P/E Discount Meets DCF Gap

• NWPX trades on a trailing P/E of 22.2x, below both the peer average of 35.3x and the US Construction industry at 35.8x, yet the DCF fair value of US$69.70 is below the current share price of US$81.66.
• What stands out is that the lower P/E relative to peers supports investors who see potential value. In contrast, the DCF gap, where the share price of US$81.66 sits above the DCF fair value of US$69.70 and above the allowed analyst price target of US$69.33, backs those who worry that the market is already pricing in more than current cash flow assumptions justify.
  • For bullish investors, the 22.2x P/E compared with peer levels above 35x looks like a clear discount, but they still have to reconcile paying above both the DCF fair value and the US$69.33 analyst target on the numbers provided.
  • For more cautious holders, the combination of slower 3.5% earnings growth, 1.5% revenue growth and a price that sits above US$69.70 and US$69.33 tilts the balance toward asking whether the relative P/E discount is enough on its own.

If you want to see how bullish investors justify paying above both the DCF fair value and the US$69.33 target on these earnings, 🐂 NWPX Infrastructure Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for NWPX Infrastructure on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

If this mix of bullish and cautious takeaways leaves you uncertain, it is a good moment to move fast and test the numbers yourself against your own expectations. To round out your view, take a closer look at the 2 key rewards that our analysis has identified for the company and decide how they fit with your thesis.

Explore Alternatives

Slower 3.5% earnings growth, 1.5% revenue growth, easing margins at 6.7%, and a share price above DCF fair value all point to a less compelling risk reward profile.

If you are questioning whether this balance of modest growth and valuation tension suits you, it is a smart time to compare it against 53 high quality undervalued stocks that pair stronger value signals with fundamentals that better fit your comfort level.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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