Owens Corning (OC) LTM Net Loss Challenges Bullish Margin Recovery Narratives

Owens Corning FY 2025 earnings snapshot

Owens Corning (OC) has wrapped up FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$2,142 million and a basic EPS loss of US$3.45, capping a year where trailing 12 month revenue came in at US$10.1 billion and basic EPS was a loss of US$2.24. Over recent quarters, the company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$2,840 million in Q4 2024 to US$2,530 million in Q1 2025, then US$2,747 million in Q2 and US$2,684 million in Q3. Basic EPS swung between a loss of US$3.00 in Q4 2024 and a profit of US$3.30, US$2.97 and US$3.93 in the first three quarters of 2025 before returning to a loss in Q3 and Q4. With the shares around US$123.48 and margins pressured by recent losses, investors are likely to focus on how sustainable any future margin recovery could be from here.

See our full analysis for Owens Corning.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the prevailing narratives about Owens Corning, and where the story the numbers tell might challenge those views.

See what the community is saying about Owens Corning

LTM swings from US$702m profit to US$188m loss

• On a trailing 12 month basis, net income moved from a profit of US$702 million in Q2 2025 to a loss of US$188 million by Q4, alongside revenue of US$10.1b and basic EPS of a US$2.24 loss.
• Bulls focus on forecasts that call for earnings to grow about 89.89% per year and for profit margins to rise from roughly 0.7% to 20.9% over three years. However, the current LTM loss of US$188 million and EPS of a US$2.24 loss create a clear gap between that optimism and the most recent reported reality.
  • The bullish view references earnings reaching about US$2.2b by around 2029, which implies a large swing from the current US$188 million LTM loss.
  • Forecast revenue compression of 3.3% per year in the bullish case contrasts with the last 12 months of modest 0.5% growth, so the optimism rests heavily on margin improvement rather than top line expansion.

Bulls argue that these earnings swings are the setup for a stronger multi year story, but the latest LTM loss shows how much would need to change before that narrative is reflected in reported results. 🐂 Owens Corning Bull Case

Losses in Q3 and Q4 alongside weaker LTM EPS

• Within FY 2025, net income excluding extra items shows a US$334 million profit in Q2 and a US$255 million profit in Q1, then flips to losses of US$495 million in Q3 and US$282 million in Q4. This pattern pulled LTM basic EPS down from US$8.17 in Q2 to a US$2.24 loss by Q4.
• Bears point to this sequence as support for their view that softer demand and tariff related cost pressure, especially in Doors, could keep margins under strain even as the company invests about US$800 million in capacity projects.
  • The Q3 and Q4 losses, alongside a US$780 million non cash goodwill impairment already taken in Doors, align with the cautious view that this segment may struggle to lift margins quickly.
  • At the same time, capital additions and production downtime mentioned in the bearish narrative highlight the risk that new assets in roofing and insulation may take time to reach efficient utilization if volumes remain subdued.

Skeptics warn that back to back quarterly losses and the large goodwill impairment in Doors fit their concern that weaker volumes and tariff costs could weigh on earnings for longer than bulls would prefer. 🐻 Owens Corning Bear Case

Low 1x P/S and DCF fair value gap

• The shares trade around US$123.48 with a trailing P/S of 1x compared with 2.3x for the broader US Building industry and 3.8x for peers, and a supplied DCF fair value of US$136.56 that sits about 9.6% above the current price.
• Consensus narrative highlights long term margin expansion and earnings growth as a key part of the story. The low P/S and the gap to the US$136.56 DCF fair value both rely on the company eventually moving from the current LTM loss of US$188 million and modest 0.5% revenue growth to the forecast US$1.6b of earnings and 13.9% margin, which would represent a meaningful shift from today.
  • The reported dividend yield of 2.56%, paired with high debt and unprofitable trailing results, shows why some investors may question how quickly those consensus earnings targets can be reached.
  • Even with an analyst price target cap of US$137.69 and the DCF fair value above the current price, the recent move from a US$702 million LTM profit in Q2 to a loss in Q4 indicates that the market is weighing relative cheapness against balance sheet and profitability risks.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Owens Corning on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

If this mix of risks and rewards feels finely balanced, now is a good time to weigh the numbers yourself and stress test your view with 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

Back to back quarterly losses, an LTM net loss of US$188 million and unprofitable EPS indicate that earnings quality and consistency are current weak spots for Owens Corning.

If that earnings volatility makes you want steadier prospects, check out our 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores to quickly spot companies with more resilient profiles and stress test your portfolio today.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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