Is Bruker (BRKR) Now Attractive After A 21% One Year Share Price Decline?

• If you are wondering whether Bruker is priced attractively right now, you are not alone, especially with sentiment around the stock shifting recently.
• The share price closed at US$39.77, with a 4.3% gain over the last 7 days, set against returns of a 21.0% decline over 30 days, a 17.3% decline year to date, and a 21.6% decline over 1 year, as well as 41.7% and 35.1% declines over 3 and 5 years respectively.
• These mixed shorter term and longer term returns have put more attention on what investors are currently paying for Bruker. That makes it especially important to understand how different valuation methods line up with the story implied by the recent price levels.
• On our 6 point valuation checklist, Bruker scores 5 out of 6 for being assessed as undervalued. Next, we will look at how traditional valuation approaches stack up, and then finish with an even more rounded way to think about what the stock might be worth.

Find out why Bruker's -21.6% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Bruker Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of the cash Bruker could generate in the future, then discounts those projections back to what they may be worth in today’s dollars. It is essentially asking what a rational buyer might pay today for all those future cash flows.

For Bruker, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is reported at US$23.98 million. Analysts provide explicit free cash flow estimates out to 2029, where free cash flow is projected at US$391.00 million. Further yearly projections out to 2035 are extrapolated by Simply Wall St based on those analyst inputs.

When all those projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of US$51.53 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$39.77, this implies a 22.8% discount. On this DCF view, the stock screens as undervalued.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Bruker is undervalued by 22.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 51 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Bruker.

Approach 2: Bruker Price vs Sales

For Bruker, the preferred yardstick is the P/S ratio, which can be useful when you want to focus on how the market values each dollar of revenue, especially when earnings are not the cleanest guide. A higher or lower P/S ratio often reflects what investors are willing to pay given their expectations for future growth and the level of risk they see in the business.

Right now, Bruker trades on a P/S ratio of 1.76x. That sits below the Life Sciences industry average P/S of 2.83x and also below the peer group average of 2.27x. On those simple comparisons, the shares look cheaper than many similar companies on a sales basis.

Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” for Bruker of 3.42x. This is the P/S multiple it would expect given factors such as the company’s growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks. Because it brings these elements together in a single number, the Fair Ratio can be more informative than a plain comparison with peers or the broad industry. With the actual P/S of 1.76x sitting below the Fair Ratio of 3.42x, the shares screen as undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Bruker Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St you can use Narratives, where you tell a clear story about Bruker by linking your view of its revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a fair value, and then a simple comparison of that fair value to the current price on the Community page that millions of investors use. Each Narrative automatically updates when fresh news or earnings arrive. For Bruker, you might side with a cautious view closer to the US$35 fair value on the bearish end, or a more optimistic stance nearer US$63.51 on the bullish end. In both cases you are explicitly choosing the story behind those numbers rather than relying only on static ratios.

For Bruker, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Bruker Narratives:

🐂 Bruker Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish narrative: US$54.43 per share

Implied discount to fair value at the last close of US$39.77: about 27%

Assumed annual revenue growth: 3.26%

• Analysts in this camp expect biopharma funding to stabilise over time, with recurring revenue and cost reduction programs supporting higher net margins.
• The model uses a Fair Value of US$54.43, an 8.43% discount rate and assumes profit margins trending toward about 10% with a future P/E of roughly 28x.
• Recent BEST division agreements, large research orders and a patent settlement are incorporated as slightly higher margin and earnings quality assumptions in the updated view.

🐻 Bruker Bear Case

Fair value in this bearish narrative: US$35.00 per share

Implied premium to fair value at the last close of US$39.77: about 14%

Assumed annual revenue growth: 3.65%

• The more cautious view centres on pressure from academic and government funding cuts, softer order trends and execution risk around a steep margin ramp into 2026.
• This narrative uses a Fair Value of US$35.00, an 8.49% discount rate and assumes higher long term profit margins but with a much lower future P/E of about 11x.
• Analysts here focus on Q4 margin pressure, lower valuation multiples applied to future earnings and the risk that cost savings have to do more of the work if revenue growth stays muted.

Do you think there's more to the story for Bruker? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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