Assessing Garmin (GRMN) Valuation After Strong Earnings Guidance Dividend Hike And Buyback Announcement

Garmin (GRMN) is back in the spotlight after reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 results that showed higher sales and earnings, along with a larger dividend, fresh 2026 guidance, and a new share repurchase program.

See our latest analysis for Garmin.

Garmin's recent earnings, dividend increase, guidance and new buyback have coincided with strong momentum, with a 7 day share price return of 15.9% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 13.1%. The 3 year total shareholder return of about 2.7x highlights how sentiment has built over a longer horizon.

If this kind of strong run has you looking around the wider market, our screener of 22 top founder-led companies is a useful place to spot other businesses that might be worth a closer look.

With the stock up sharply and trading close to the average analyst price target, Garmin now sits at an interesting crossroads. Is the recent strength leaving limited upside, or is the market still not fully pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 6.9% Overvalued

Garmin's most followed valuation narrative pegs fair value at about $235.25, a shade below the last close of $251.49. This frames the current rally in a different light.

The launch of the Garmin Connect+ premium service, which offers AI-based health and fitness insights, is likely to boost subscription-based revenue growth and improve overall margins through higher-margin services. The new vívoactive 6 smartwatch release, with advanced features like an AMOLED display and enhanced sports apps, suggests potential revenue growth in the Fitness segment, supported by strong demand for advanced wearables.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what has to happen for that fair value to stack up? The narrative leans on steady top line progress, firm margins and a premium earnings multiple that still sits above the broader sector.

Result: Fair Value of $235.25 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, those assumptions can wobble if Marine weakness persists or if higher R&D and SG&A, which grew 10%, squeeze margins more than expected.

Find out about the key risks to this Garmin narrative.

Next Steps

If the mixed signals here leave you on the fence, now is a good time to look through the numbers yourself and stress test the assumptions. To see what the optimism in the data actually looks like, take a close look at the 3 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Garmin has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. A few minutes with the right screeners can surface opportunities you might otherwise miss entirely.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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