Assessing Jabil (JBL) Valuation After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Lifts Market Sentiment

Tariff ruling sparks fresh attention on Jabil stock

Jabil (JBL) moved back into focus after its shares rose 3.3% following the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn global tariffs imposed by the previous administration, easing a key cost concern for investors.

See our latest analysis for Jabil.

Beyond the tariff ruling, Jabil has been on the market’s radar for some time, with a 30 day share price return of 9.51% and a 69.31% total shareholder return over the past year. The current share price of $266.26 reflects momentum that has built over multiple years, including a very large five year total shareholder return.

If this tariff news has you thinking about other supply chain and manufacturing plays, it could be a good moment to check out 33 robotics and automation stocks as a starting list of potential ideas.

With Jabil showing a very large 5 year total return, solid recent gains and an intrinsic value estimate that sits below the current US$266.26 share price, is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 0.7% Overvalued

Jabil’s most followed valuation narrative pegs fair value at $264.50, which sits just below the latest close at $266.26, suggesting only a small gap.

The expansion in India, particularly in Gujarat, to support photonics capabilities indicates growth potential in a promising market, likely enhancing future revenues from domestic demand and infrastructure projects. Jabil's acquisition of Pharmaceutics International, Inc. opens access to a $20 billion market, suggesting potential revenue growth and improved margins by expanding its pharmaceutical solutions offering.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue trajectory and profit uplift those moves are assumed to deliver, and which earnings multiple ties it all together? The full narrative lays out a detailed growth path, margin shift and valuation bridge that goes well beyond the current tariff headlines.

Result: Fair Value of $264.50 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh softer demand in areas like renewable energy and EVs, along with higher inventory days that could pressure cash flow assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Jabil narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

While the most followed narrative labels Jabil about 0.7% overvalued versus its $264.50 fair value estimate, our DCF model points the other way. On that view, the current $266.26 price sits roughly 27.7% below an estimated future cash flow value of $368.06.

If cash flows are your main anchor, that gap might look like opportunity, but it also raises a question: which set of assumptions do you trust more, the earnings multiple story or the cash flow story?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Jabil for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With mixed signals on valuation and sentiment running both cautious and optimistic, it makes sense to look at the full picture yourself and move quickly to form your own view by starting with 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you want to keep your momentum going beyond Jabil and uncover fresh opportunities, let the Simply Wall St Screener surface stocks that match your priorities.

• Target quality first by reviewing companies with strong balance sheets and fundamentals via our solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (40 results).
• Hunt for potential value by scanning our 51 high quality undervalued stocks that filters for companies with robust cash flows and supportive financial profiles.
• Lock in reliable cash flow ideas by checking out 16 dividend fortresses that focuses on higher yielding companies with an emphasis on stability.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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