A Look At Valvoline (VVV) Valuation After Its Recent Share Price Momentum

Valvoline stock: recent performance snapshot

Valvoline (VVV) has drawn investor attention after a strong recent run in its share price, with the stock up about 18% over the past month and 23% in the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for Valvoline.

Beyond the recent surge, Valvoline’s 1-year total shareholder return of 5.6% contrasts with a stronger year to date share price return of 34.7%. This suggests momentum has picked up after a slower prior period.

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With Valvoline shares recently up sharply and the price sitting close to analyst targets, the key question now is simple: are you looking at an underappreciated compounder or a stock where the market is already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 6.5% Undervalued

At $38.90, Valvoline sits below the most widely followed fair value estimate of $41.60, which is built on detailed forecasts for growth, margins and valuation multiples.

Expansion of premium services (full synthetic oil changes, NOCR, fleet management, and digital/loyalty programs) is improving the service and product mix, resulting in higher average ticket sizes and gross margins, which is a direct catalyst for enhanced earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue climb, margin reset and future P/E level it takes to reach that fair value, and how buybacks factor into the story?

Result: Fair Value of $41.60 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still real swing factors here, including rising competition in quick service maintenance and the long term threat that wider EV adoption could reduce core oil change demand.

Find out about the key risks to this Valvoline narrative.

Another View: Earnings Multiple Sends A Different Signal

While the narrative fair value points to a 6.5% undervaluation, the current P/E of 55.8x tells a different story. It is far above peers at 10x, the US Specialty Retail average at 21.9x, and even the fair ratio of 35.3x. This suggests meaningful valuation risk if sentiment cools. Which signal do you trust more, the story or the simple multiple?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and worry feels familiar, do not sit on the sidelines. Instead, weigh the trade off yourself by checking the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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