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To own Lam Research, you need to believe AI-driven demand for advanced memory and logic will keep pulling through more complex etch and deposition tools, even as wafer fab spending remains cyclical and heavily exposed to a few big customers. The Boise expansion modestly reinforces the near term AI and high bandwidth memory catalyst by embedding Lam closer to Micron, but it does little to reduce the key risks around customer concentration and potential swings in memory capex.
Recent analyst commentary on Lam’s exposure to an AI driven wafer fab equipment upcycle, including TD Cowen and BofA Securities highlighting strength in high bandwidth memory and advanced packaging, lines up closely with the Micron focused Boise news. That office simply adds another on the ground proof point to the view that Lam’s tools are central to AI intensive memory production, while also reminding you how tied the story is to a handful of large chipmakers.
Yet while the Boise move highlights Lam’s AI memory opportunity, investors should also be aware of how concentrated its revenue remains in a few key regions and customers...
Read the full narrative on Lam Research (it's free!)
Lam Research's narrative projects $23.6 billion revenue and $6.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 8.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.3 billion earnings increase from $5.4 billion today.
Uncover how Lam Research's forecasts yield a $274.42 fair value, a 13% upside to its current price.
Some of the lowest ranked analysts were assuming only about 5 percent annual revenue growth and narrowing margins, so compared with the Boise expansion and AI memory optimism you are seeing a much more cautious story that may or may not shift as this new Micron focused capacity beds in.
Explore 12 other fair value estimates on Lam Research - why the stock might be worth as much as 34% more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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