Will DaVita’s (DVA) US$5.6 Billion Buybacks and Tech Push Change Its Capital Allocation Narrative

• Earlier in February 2026, DaVita Inc. completed two major share repurchase tranches under its 2020 and 2024 buyback programs, retiring millions of shares for a combined outlay of more than US$5.63 billion.
• This large-scale reduction in share count, alongside CEO Javier Rodriguez’s upcoming appearance at the ViVE 2026 conference in Los Angeles, highlights how DaVita is pairing capital returns with a focus on its long-term care and technology agenda.
• We’ll now examine how the completion of these sizable buybacks could reshape DaVita’s investment narrative and future capital allocation.

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DaVita Investment Narrative Recap

To own DaVita, you need to be comfortable with a capital intensive dialysis business where treatment volumes, reimbursement rates and operating costs drive the story. The newly completed US$7.45 billion of buybacks do not change the near term risk that elevated mortality, missed treatments and reimbursement pressure can weigh on earnings, though they could amplify any future recovery in per share metrics.

The most relevant recent announcement here is the completion of DaVita’s 2020 and 2024 repurchase programs, which retired more than 59 million shares. This materially reduces the share count at a time when net income has been under pressure, potentially magnifying earnings per share once volume trends and operating margins stabilize, but it does not remove the underlying operational and policy risks around patient growth and CMS rates.

Yet behind the headline buybacks, investors should also be aware of the risk that persistent volume softness and elevated missed treatments could...

Read the full narrative on DaVita (it's free!)

DaVita's narrative projects $15.0 billion revenue and $970.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.4% yearly revenue growth and about a $134 million earnings increase from $836.3 million today.

Uncover how DaVita's forecasts yield a $151.71 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest analysts were already assuming only about US$15.3 billion of revenue and roughly US$803 million of earnings by 2029, and you can see how they focus much more on sustained volume pressure and slower margin progress than the baseline view, which could look quite different once these large buybacks and DaVita’s evolving technology investments are fully reflected.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on DaVita - why the stock might be worth just $151.71!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your DaVita research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free DaVita research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate DaVita's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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