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    A Look At BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) Valuation As Earnings Near And Ask Sage Acquisition Shapes Growth Potential

    Simply Wall St·02/23/2026 10:21:37
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    BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) is in focus as traders watch pre market activity ahead of its March 5, 2026 earnings report, following the Ask Sage acquisition and its expanding generative AI footprint in government and defense.

    See our latest analysis for BigBear.ai Holdings.

    Despite the Ask Sage deal and focus on secure generative AI, recent trading has been weak, with a 30 day share price return of 33.68% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 43.15%. However, the 3 year total shareholder return of 22.54% shows a very different longer term picture.

    If BigBear.ai’s volatility has you looking across the sector, this is a good moment to scan our list of 28 AI small caps and see how other AI names compare.

    With BigBear.ai trading lower over 1 day, 7 days, 30 days and year to date despite AI enthusiasm and a discount to the average analyst price target, is the market overlooking value here or already pricing in future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 42.1% Undervalued

    BigBear.ai Holdings last closed at $3.86, while the most followed narrative sets fair value at $6.67, framing a wide gap that this story tries to explain.

    With a healthy backlog of $385 million and increased emphasis on multiyear programs, BigBear.ai is positioned to build a stable revenue stream, supporting sustainable growth and improved net margins.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how a company with losses, government contract lumpiness and only modest revenue assumptions still lands on that kind of fair value? The narrative focuses on a shift in margins, a long dated backlog and a richer earnings multiple than many investors might expect. If you want to see exactly how those ingredients are combined, the full narrative lays out the math behind that $6.67 figure.

    Result: Fair Value of $6.67 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, you also need to weigh lumpy government revenue and ongoing operating losses, which could keep earnings pressure in place and challenge the $6.67 fair value story.

    Find out about the key risks to this BigBear.ai Holdings narrative.

    Another View: Expensive On Sales Today

    The $6.67 fair value comes from a long term earnings story, but on current numbers BigBear.ai trades on a P/S of 11.7x. That is far higher than the US IT industry at 2.1x and well above its own fair ratio of 2.1x, which points to valuation risk rather than a simple discount. So is the real gap in the model or in the market’s patience?

    See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

    NYSE:BBAI P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026
    NYSE:BBAI P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026

    Next Steps

    If this mix of optimism and caution leaves you on the fence, take a closer look at the underlying data now and shape your own view with 3 important warning signs.

    Ready to hunt for more ideas?

    If BigBear.ai has you thinking more broadly about opportunities, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St screener to pressure test your next move.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.