Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) Is Up 12.5% After Opendoor 2.0 Margins Shine Despite Wider Losses – Has The Bull Case Changed?

• In February 2026, Opendoor Technologies reported Q4 2025 and full-year results showing revenue falling to US$736 million for the quarter and US$4.37 billion for the year, alongside a significantly wider net loss of US$1.10 billion in Q4 and US$1.30 billion for 2025.
• Despite the larger GAAP losses and guidance for about a 10% quarter-over-quarter revenue decline in Q1 2026, management highlighted a 46% jump in home purchases, faster inventory turnover, and an “Opendoor 2.0” model delivering the strongest contribution margins in the company’s history, under a plan targeting positive adjusted net income by the end of 2026.
• We’ll now examine how this combination of stronger contribution margins and higher home acquisition volumes may influence Opendoor’s pre-existing investment narrative.

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Opendoor Technologies Investment Narrative Recap

To own Opendoor here, you have to believe its “Opendoor 2.0” model can turn better unit economics and faster inventory turns into a credible path toward breakeven, despite large GAAP losses and a tough housing backdrop. In the near term, the key catalyst is whether rising home acquisitions plus stronger contribution margins show through in improved adjusted results, while the biggest risk remains that scaling inventory on a weak market and a heavy debt load magnifies losses instead of containing them.

Against that backdrop, the Q4 2025 update is especially relevant: management reported a 46% quarter‑over‑quarter jump in homes purchased and said the October 2025 cohort delivered the strongest contribution margins in Opendoor’s history. This sits alongside guidance for about a 10% sequential revenue decline in Q1 2026, so the story hinges on whether operational gains and faster inventory turnover can offset macro headwinds and the pressure of US$1.30 billion in annual net losses.

Yet behind these improvements, investors should also be aware of Opendoor’s reliance on external capital and the risks that come with...

Read the full narrative on Opendoor Technologies (it's free!)

Opendoor Technologies’ narrative projects $4.7 billion revenue and $239.7 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Opendoor Technologies' forecasts yield a $4.33 fair value, a 13% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts were expecting Opendoor’s revenue to shrink about 13% a year and still see earnings at around US$170 million by 2028, so compared with concerns about liquidity and external funding needs, you get a much more pessimistic story. This new earnings report could shift both views, and it is worth seeing where you sit along that spectrum.

Explore 24 other fair value estimates on Opendoor Technologies - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Opendoor Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Opendoor Technologies research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Opendoor Technologies' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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