Is Garmin (GRMN) Still Attractive After 20% Monthly Surge In Share Price

• If you are wondering whether Garmin shares offer good value at today’s price, you are not alone. This article is designed to help you assess that question clearly.
• The stock has recently seen sharp moves, with returns of 15.9% over 7 days, 20.7% over 30 days, 22.9% year to date, 12.6% over 1 year and 123.7% over 5 years. This naturally raises questions about growth potential and changing risk perceptions.
• Recent news around Garmin has focused on its role as a long standing player in fitness trackers, wearables and GPS enabled devices. This keeps it front of mind whenever investors look at consumer hardware that blends software and devices. Commentary has also highlighted how the company sits in a segment where brand, ecosystem and product stickiness can matter as much as headline unit volumes.
• Despite the strong share price history, Garmin currently has a valuation score of 0 out of 6. We will walk through what the usual valuation methods say about the stock, then finish by looking at a broader way to think about value that goes beyond any single model.

Garmin scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Garmin Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes the cash Garmin is expected to generate in the future and discounts those projections back to today to estimate what the entire business could be worth in dollars.

Garmin’s latest twelve month free cash flow is about $1.38b. Analysts have provided detailed forecasts for the next few years, and the model then extends those out to 2035 using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. By 2030, projected free cash flow is $2.34b, with intermediate annual estimates between 2026 and 2035 ranging from around $1.64b to $2.87b before discounting.

When all those future cash flows are discounted back and summed, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of $227.21 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies the stock is about 9.5% overvalued on this DCF view.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Garmin is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Garmin.

Approach 2: Garmin Price vs Earnings (P/E)

For a profitable company like Garmin, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how many dollars investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. It captures what the market is currently willing to pay for the company’s profit stream.

What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on what investors expect for future growth and how risky they think those earnings are. Higher perceived growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while lower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower P/E.

Garmin currently trades on a P/E of 28.79x. That stands above the Consumer Durables industry average of 13.62x and also above the peer average of 22.55x. To sharpen this comparison, Simply Wall St calculates a “Fair Ratio”, which estimates the P/E you might expect given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, market cap, industry and company specific risks. For Garmin, this Fair Ratio is 20.94x.

This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple industry or peer comparison, because it explicitly folds in growth, risk and profitability rather than assuming one size fits all. Set against the current 28.79x P/E, Garmin appears to be trading above this Fair Ratio.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Garmin Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce Narratives. These let you attach a clear story about Garmin to your own numbers by linking how you see its future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a Fair Value estimate and then a simple comparison with today’s share price. This is all within an easy tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that is used by millions of investors, where Narratives automatically refresh when new news or earnings arrive. For example, one Garmin Narrative might lean toward the higher Fair Value of about US$310 or the bullish US$285 target, while another points to the more cautious US$185 or US$167 views. This gives you a concrete way to decide whether the price you see on screen lines up with the story you actually believe.

For Garmin, here are previews of two leading Garmin Narratives to make comparison easier:

🐂 Garmin Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish Narrative: US$310.00

Implied upside versus the last close of US$248.90: about 19.7% undervalued based on this fair value

Revenue growth used in this Narrative: 11.32%

• Assumes subscription and software revenue scale faster than current analyst assumptions, supported by Garmin Coach, Connect Plus and a larger base of premium users.
• Includes meaningful contributions from MYLAPS, AI driven health analytics and premium aviation and marine verticals to support future earnings and margins.
• Highlights risks from smartphone substitution, heavyweight technology competitors, product concentration, pricing pressure and regulation, which could all challenge this upside view.

🐻 Garmin Bear Case

Fair value in this more cautious Narrative: US$235.25

Implied downside versus the last close of US$248.90: about 5.8% overvalued based on this fair value

Revenue growth used in this Narrative: 7.73%

• Assumes solid growth from premium services, wearables, aviation products and international markets, while the P/E remains closer to current levels rather than moving higher.
• Builds in higher operating expenses and sensitivity to Marine and Outdoor demand, as well as currency movements, which could limit earnings progress.
• Views the current share price as sitting above the analysts’ fair value, so this Narrative leans toward market expectations being slightly ahead of the underlying earnings outlook.

Considered together, these Narratives outline a range for Garmin from a bullish fair value of about US$310 down to a more conservative US$235.25, each tied to specific assumptions about revenue growth, margins and the valuation multiple the market may apply. The key question is which Narrative aligns more closely with your own view of Garmin’s products, competition and cash flows over time.

Do you think there's more to the story for Garmin? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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