$130 Billion On The Line: Supreme Court Could Torch Trump's Tariffs Today

SCOTUS is back from recess. Opinions drop today at 10 a.m. ET, and the $133 billion question is whether Donald Trump’s tariff regime survives.

Prediction markets say probably not.

The case, Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, asks whether Trump could legally use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a 1977 emergency statute never previously used to impose import taxes, to slap sweeping duties on nearly every U.S. trading partner.

Lower courts have already ruled twice that he couldn’t.

Bettors Are Fading Trump

On Polymarket, odds that the Court rules in favor of Trump’s tariffs sit at just 24%, down slightly over the last two days. The market has seen over $4.5 million in volume,

There is a separate Polymarket tracking when the Court will rule. It gives a 18% we get ruling by today, a 38% chance by next Wednesday and a 90% chance of a ruling by March 30th.

If the Supreme Court does block Trump’s tariffs, importers should not expect immediate refunds.

The Polymarket “Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs by June 30th?” is currently at 18%, reflecting the logistical difficulties involved, and the chance Tariffs will not be blocked retroactively.

The Justices Already Showed Their Cards

There’s a good reason prediction market traders are skeptical, At November oral arguments, the skepticism was barely veiled.

Chief Justice John Roberts questioned whether IEEPA’s vague language could really hand one man the power to rewrite global trade, invoking the “major questions doctrine.”

Justice Elena Kagan argued the power to tax belongs to Congress, full stop.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett appeared open to striking down the tariffs but pressed challengers on how a $130 billion refund process would actually work.

Only Justice Samuel Alito appeared sympathetic to the administration.

What Happens Next?

Even a loss for Trump likely isn’t the end of tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the administration could “recreate the exact tariff structure” using Section 232, Section 301, or Section 122 if it loses, though analysts warn replacement tariffs would likely be less severe.

Meanwhile, over 100 companies have already pre-filed suits to protect their refund claims regardless of the outcome.

IEEPA tariffs have collected over $130 billion since “Liberation Day” in April 2025; the largest federal tax increase since 1993, according to the Tax Foundation.

What Stocks Are Most Affected

Jim Cramer said a strike-down would get the retail sector “roaring.”

The names most directly in the crosshairs are Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Costco (NASDAQ:COST), both heavily reliant on imported goods and the latter having already filed a lawsuit seeking a full IEEPA refund.

On the retail side, Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) and Nike (NYSE:NKE), crushed by tariffs on Asian manufacturing, stand to gain the most from any rollback.

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