Is XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR) Pricing Reflect A Turnaround After Years Of Heavy Losses

• If you are wondering whether XPLR Infrastructure at US$10.30 is a bargain or a value trap, you are in the right place to unpack what the current price might be implying.
• The stock has seen mixed returns, with a 3.3% decline over the last week, a 5.4% gain over the last 30 days, 1.3% year to date, but a much larger 81.4% decline over 3 years and 81.2% over 5 years.
• Recent interest around XPLR Infrastructure has been driven more by its long term share price history and its current positioning within the utilities sector than by any single headline event. Investors are weighing whether the recent 10.2% return over the last year is a sign of stabilisation or simply noise against a much weaker multi year picture.
• On our valuation checks the company scores 2 out of 6, as shown in the valuation scorecard. Next we will walk through what different valuation approaches are saying about XPLR Infrastructure today, before finishing with a way to put those numbers into a broader investing context.

XPLR Infrastructure scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: XPLR Infrastructure Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of the cash a business could generate in the future and discounts those cash flows back to today to arrive at an estimate of what the entire company might be worth now.

For XPLR Infrastructure, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is a loss of $99.67 million. Analysts have provided Free Cash Flow estimates out to 2027, with Simply Wall St extending that path using its own assumptions to build a 10 year view. Those projections show Free Cash Flow of $641.50 million in 2026 and $666 million in 2027, with further annual figures through to 2035 taken from the same 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model.

When those projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model suggests an intrinsic value of about $76.86 per share. Compared with the current share price of $10.30, that outcome implies the stock is 86.6% undervalued according to this method.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests XPLR Infrastructure is undervalued by 86.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 53 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for XPLR Infrastructure.

Approach 2: XPLR Infrastructure Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand because it links what you pay today directly to the earnings the business is already generating. It helps you see how many dollars of price the market is attaching to each dollar of earnings.

What counts as a “normal” P/E depends a lot on how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings look. Higher expected growth or more predictable earnings can sometimes support a higher P/E, while higher risk or weaker profitability tends to point to a lower, more conservative multiple.

XPLR Infrastructure is trading on a P/E of 107.5x. That sits well above the Renewable Energy industry average of 16.2x and also above a peer group average of 27.1x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework estimates that, given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and risks, a P/E of 58.5x would be more in line with what you might expect for this company.

The Fair Ratio aims to be more targeted than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for company specific traits rather than assuming one size fits all. Compared with the current 107.5x P/E, the 58.5x Fair Ratio points to XPLR Infrastructure trading on a richer multiple than that model would suggest.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your XPLR Infrastructure Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you attach your own story to XPLR Infrastructure’s numbers. You can connect your assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins to a fair value estimate, then compare that to the current price to decide whether you see the shares as attractive or expensive. The platform updates your view automatically as new earnings or news come in and allows different investors to express very different takes. For example, one Narrative might lean on the higher US$15.00 fair value with faster growth and higher margins, while another might anchor closer to the lower US$7.00 view with more modest expectations and a different comfort level around risk.

Do you think there's more to the story for XPLR Infrastructure? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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