Assessing AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) Valuation As Q4 Results And Augusta Gold Deal Fuel Investor Interest

AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is back in focus as investors look ahead to its fourth quarter 2025 earnings update on February 20, with attention on higher gold prices, production growth, and the recent Augusta Gold acquisition.

See our latest analysis for AngloGold Ashanti.

Those fundamentals are now meeting strong market interest, with the share price at $107.63 after a 34.86% 90 day share price return and a very large 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has been building despite short term volatility around gold price swings and the Augusta Gold deal.

If this move in AngloGold Ashanti has you thinking more broadly about precious metals, it could be worth scanning our list of 23 elite gold producer stocks for other ideas in the gold space.

With AngloGold Ashanti trading at $107.63, an intrinsic value estimate that is materially higher, and only a small gap to the average analyst target, you have to ask: is there still a mispricing here, or is the market already baking in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.8% Overvalued

At $107.63 against a most-followed fair value estimate of $98, the current price sits above the narrative view and puts the spotlight on what is driving that gap.

Analysts have raised their price target on AngloGold Ashanti from 90.57 dollars to 98.00 dollars, reflecting expectations of faster revenue growth despite slightly higher discount rates and lower projected profit margins, as well as a richer future earnings multiple.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious why a higher discount rate still supports that fair value? Revenue is expected to push higher, margins shift, and the earnings multiple does something interesting. The full narrative connects those moving parts.

Result: Fair Value of $98 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this depends on cost pressures and regulatory hurdles not intensifying, with rising cash costs and uncertain permitting timelines both capable of challenging that upbeat narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this AngloGold Ashanti narrative.

Another Angle On Value

So far, the most-followed fair value of $98 suggests AngloGold Ashanti looks 9.8% overvalued at $107.63. Yet on earnings, the picture shifts. The current P/E of 24.3x sits below peers at 32x, the broader US Metals and Mining industry at 25.4x, and a fair ratio of 33.4x.

That gap points to a market that is either still cautious on the story or slow to fully price in current earnings power. This raises the real question for you: is this a valuation cushion, or a signal to be wary of how quickly expectations have moved?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If all this leaves you torn between optimism and caution, now is a good time to check the underlying data yourself and pressure test your view, starting with 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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