Assessing Avista (AVA) Valuation After Idaho Electricity Rate Increase Request

Idaho rate case puts Avista (AVA) in focus

Avista (AVA) has filed for an annual electric rate adjustment with the Idaho Public Utilities Commission, seeking a 7.4% revenue increase tied to funding electric energy efficiency programs.

See our latest analysis for Avista.

Avista’s recent Idaho rate case comes as the stock’s share price return is up 4.95% over 30 days and 8.91% year to date, while its 1 year total shareholder return of 18.58% points to steady, if moderate, momentum rather than a sharp re rating.

If this kind of regulated utility story has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your search and look at 24 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks as potential next ideas.

With Avista trading at $42.17 against an analyst price target of $40.60 and an intrinsic value estimate that is 11.46% lower than the market, is there real upside left here, or is the stock already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.9% Overvalued

Avista’s last close at $42.17 sits slightly above the most followed fair value estimate of $40.60, which is built on detailed long term earnings and cash flow assumptions.

Robust, multi year capital investment plans approaching $3 billion (2025 to 2029), with additional upside from grid expansion projects and new generation needs tied to large load requests, position Avista to earn regulated returns and drive long term earnings expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what those planned investments imply for future revenue, earnings, and margins, and how they feed into the required return and profit multiple baked into that $40.60 figure? The full narrative lays out the earnings path, the expected efficiency in turning those dollars into profit, and the valuation math that connects today’s price to that long term profile.

Result: Fair Value of $40.60 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh the concentration in the Pacific Northwest and rising grid, wildfire, and clean tech investment costs that could pressure earnings and cash flow.

Find out about the key risks to this Avista narrative.

Next Steps

Given that this story includes both risks investors are worried about and rewards they are watching closely, it makes sense to check the numbers for yourself quickly and decide where you land. You can start with 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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