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    A Look At Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Valuation After 2025 Results And Fresh 2026 Guidance

    Simply Wall St·02/19/2026 12:28:42
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    Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) has just released its full year 2025 results and issued detailed 2026 guidance, providing fresh numbers on earnings, margins and service revenue targets for each quarter.

    See our latest analysis for Grand Canyon Education.

    The shares have reacted positively to the new 2025 results and 2026 guidance, with a 1-day share price return of 3.35% and a 7-day return of 4.68%, although the 30-day return of a 5.89% decline tempers that short term momentum. Over a longer horizon, the 1-year total shareholder return of an 8.82% decline contrasts with 3-year and 5-year total shareholder returns of 44.70% and 55.10%, which suggests earlier gains have cooled recently as investors reassess earnings trends and the updated outlook.

    If this earnings update has you rethinking where growth could come from next, it might be worth broadening your search through our screener of 22 top founder-led companies as potential long term compounders.

    With earnings per share broadly flat year on year and the stock still trading below analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates, the key question now is whether this represents a genuine buying window or whether the market is already factoring in future growth.

    Most Popular Narrative: 24.6% Undervalued

    Compared to the last close at $167.79, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of about $222.67, using a 7.07% discount rate and long run cash flow assumptions.

    GCE's continued investment in scalable, technology-enabled platforms (e.g., proprietary learning management systems, AI-driven tutoring, and efficient online/hybrid curriculum delivery) is supporting higher student retention and operational efficiency, which should drive ongoing net margin improvement.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how this focus on efficiency turns into a higher valuation? The narrative leans on steady revenue expansion, thicker margins and a future earnings multiple that assumes the story continues to build. The real question is which assumptions matter most to that $222.67 figure.

    Result: Fair Value of $222.67 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this hinges on student demand and pricing holding up, while sector fraud concerns and GCE's legal and regulatory exposure could quickly challenge the current narrative.

    Find out about the key risks to this Grand Canyon Education narrative.

    Next Steps

    If this narrative seems either too cautious or too optimistic, take a moment to review the underlying numbers and assess them for yourself. You can start with our breakdown of 2 key rewards.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If this story has you thinking harder about where your next returns could come from, do not stop at one company. Widen your search before opportunities move on.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.