A Look At CNX Resources (CNX) Valuation After Debt Refinancing And Earnings Momentum

CNX Resources (CNX) is in focus after announcing a US$500 million issue of 5.875% senior notes due 2034, with proceeds earmarked to retire existing 6.000% notes maturing in 2029.

See our latest analysis for CNX Resources.

The refinancing news comes at a time when CNX Resources' share price has gained 11.45% over the past 30 days and 9.36% over 90 days. Its 1 year total shareholder return of 32.76% and very large 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns suggest longer term momentum that investors are weighing against the company’s recent earnings strength and balance sheet moves.

If this refinancing story has you looking across the energy patch, it could be a good moment to scan our list of 8 top copper producer stocks as another way to spot potential opportunities.

With CNX trading at US$40.20, a value score of 5 and a modelled intrinsic discount of about 70%, the key question now is whether the recent rally still leaves room for upside, or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.8% Overvalued

The most followed narrative pegs CNX Resources' fair value at $36.29, which sits below the recent $40.20 share price and frames the refinancing against a richer equity valuation.

Bullish analysts have raised price targets by between $1 and $5, which signals that their updated models support a higher valuation than before, even after revisiting discount rates and P/E assumptions.

The cluster of upward target revisions over a short period points to a growing alignment that the prior valuation was too conservative given the company’s projected cash generation and earnings power.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is sitting behind that higher fair value, yet still below today’s price? Revenue pacing, margin reset and a future earnings multiple all pull in different directions. The narrative spells out how those moving parts add up in the model, and why the discount rate choice matters so much.

Result: Fair Value of $36.29 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there is still a risk that environmental credit revenues or AI driven demand for gas fall short, which would challenge the earnings and P/E assumptions behind this story.

Find out about the key risks to this CNX Resources narrative.

Another View: Multiples Paint a Different Picture

While the most popular narrative sees CNX Resources as about 10.8% overvalued versus a $36.29 fair value, the simple P/E check points in another direction. CNX trades on roughly 9x earnings, compared with 14.5x for the US Oil and Gas industry, a 22.5x peer average and a 15.9x fair ratio estimate. That gap suggests the market is assigning a clear discount, so the tension is whether this reflects genuine risk, or an opportunity if the story plays out more smoothly than expected.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Seeing mixed signals on valuation and refinancing? Take a moment to weigh the upside and downside yourself, and check the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs to see how the balance of risks and rewards stacks up.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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