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    BigBear.ai (BBAI) Is Down 7.7% After Ask Sage Deal And Dilution Moves Reshape AI Story

    Simply Wall St·02/19/2026 05:33:55
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    • BigBear.ai Holdings recently completed its US$250,000,000 acquisition of Ask Sage, advanced a shareholder vote to double its authorized share count, and exchanged a portion of its convertible senior secured notes for common shares to reduce roughly US$125,000,000 in debt with limited cash impact.
    • These moves deepen BigBear.ai’s generative AI capabilities for government clients but also raise questions about dilution and the sustainability of its loss-making operations ahead of upcoming earnings.
    • Against this backdrop, we’ll explore how the Ask Sage acquisition reshapes BigBear.ai’s existing investment narrative around government-focused AI growth.

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    BigBear.ai Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

    To own BigBear.ai, you need to believe that its government-focused AI platforms can convert pilots and partnerships into durable, higher-margin programs despite continued losses and a volatile contract base. The Ask Sage acquisition and debt-for-equity swap sharpen that AI story and ease leverage, but the upcoming earnings release and shareholder vote on doubling authorized shares now look like the key short term catalyst and the clearest immediate risk around dilution.

    Among the recent announcements, the proposal to double BigBear.ai’s authorized share count is most relevant here. While it gives the company flexibility to fund acquisitions like Ask Sage and support its generative AI push, it also sits uncomfortably beside a history of losses, negative EBITDA and prior dilution. How management actually uses this expanded capacity could prove just as critical for sentiment as any new federal AI contract wins or revenue guidance tweaks.

    Yet behind the AI growth story, investors should be aware that the dilution risk tied to expanding the share count and funding ongoing losses could...

    Read the full narrative on BigBear.ai Holdings (it's free!)

    BigBear.ai Holdings' narrative projects $162.2 million revenue and $10.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.1% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $454.2 million from -$443.9 million today.

    Uncover how BigBear.ai Holdings' forecasts yield a $6.67 fair value, a 63% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    BBAI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    BBAI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the lowest ranked analysts were already modeling only about 2.7% annual revenue growth and ongoing losses, so if you worry about heavy reliance on a few big government contracts, you might see their view as a much more pessimistic counterweight that could shift further once the Ask Sage deal and new earnings are fully reflected.

    Explore 29 other fair value estimates on BigBear.ai Holdings - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

    • A great starting point for your BigBear.ai Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free BigBear.ai Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate BigBear.ai Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.