HF Sinclair (DINO) Q3 EPS Rebound Tests Bearish Volatility Narrative

HF Sinclair (DINO) has just posted its FY 2025 third quarter numbers, with revenue of US$7.3b and basic EPS of US$2.16, set against trailing 12 month earnings growth of 18.7%. The company has seen revenue move from US$7.2b in Q3 2024 to US$7.3b in Q3 2025, while quarterly EPS shifted from a loss of US$0.40 to EPS of US$2.16. The trailing net profit margin sits at 1.5% versus 1.1% last year, giving investors a clearer view of how the earnings profile is shaping up. Taken together, these results point to margins that are still relatively thin but moving in a direction that keeps profitability firmly in focus for shareholders.

See our full analysis for HF Sinclair.

With the headline figures on the table, the next step is to see how these results line up with the widely held narratives around HF Sinclair, highlighting where the numbers support the story and where they start to push back against it.

See what the community is saying about HF Sinclair

Profit swings show how cyclical refining can be

• HF Sinclair moved from a net loss of US$213.3 million in Q4 2024 and US$3 million in Q1 2025 to net income of US$207.0 million in Q2 2025 and US$403.0 million in Q3 2025, highlighting how quickly profitability can shift within a few quarters.
• Bears focus on that earlier loss making stretch and argue that refining earnings can remain volatile, yet the recent US$403.0 million profit tests the bearish view that pressure on margins will necessarily translate into persistently weak results.
  • The bearish narrative points to a first quarter net loss and pressure on refining EBITDA, which is consistent with the US$3 million loss in Q1 2025, but the swing to over US$200 million and then over US$400 million of profit suggests that segment performance can rebound when conditions are more favorable.
  • For a cautious investor, the pattern here is not one way traffic; it is a reminder that the same business model that produced losses in late 2024 and early 2025 is also capable of delivering solid profits when margins and volumes support it.

When you see profit move from losses to over US$400 million in a few quarters, it underlines how quickly the story can change in this kind of business, which is exactly what critics of the sector worry about.

🐻 HF Sinclair Bear Case

TTM earnings growth and 1.5% margin back the bullish case

• Over the last twelve months HF Sinclair earned US$391.0 million of net income on US$26.9b of revenue, giving a 1.5% net margin and 18.7% earnings growth compared with the prior year, which is well above the roughly 2% per year growth rate over the past five years.
• Bulls argue that tighter supply and resilient fuel demand support stronger and more durable profitability, and the combination of a 1.5% trailing margin and 18.7% earnings growth gives some numerical backing to that optimism, even though margins are still thin.
  • Supporters highlight that earnings are flagged as high quality, so the US$391.0 million of trailing profit is not just an accounting quirk but reflects underlying operations, which fits the bullish story about improved utilization, efficiency projects, and renewables starting to contribute.
  • At the same time, the margin is still only 1.5% on US$26.9b of sales, so while that aligns with the bullish claim of better profitability than in the past few years, it also reminds you that small changes in refining spreads can have an outsized impact on the bottom line.

Putting those trailing numbers next to the bullish narrative helps you see why some investors think HF Sinclair is on a better footing, but also why even small margin shifts can matter a lot here.

🐂 HF Sinclair Bull Case

Valuation signals pull in different directions

• HF Sinclair trades at US$51.57 per share with a trailing P/E of 24.3x, compared with 14.5x for the wider US Oil & Gas industry and 19x for peers, while a DCF fair value of US$204.63 points to a very large gap between that model and the current price.
• What stands out is the tension between a premium P/E multiple and that high DCF fair value, which both bulls and bears use differently, and the numbers give you a way to test each side rather than taking either at face value.
  • Supportive of the bullish angle, the combination of 18.7% trailing earnings growth and a current price far below the US$204.63 DCF fair value is exactly the sort of setup bulls point to when they say the market may not be paying fully for HF Sinclair’s cash flow potential.
  • In line with the cautious view, the 24.3x trailing P/E versus 14.5x for the industry and 19x for peers suggests the market is already assigning HF Sinclair a richer multiple than many competitors, which bears see as leaving less room for error, especially with a dividend yield of 3.88% that is not strongly covered by earnings.

  Next Steps

  To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for HF Sinclair on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

  After all this, are you feeling more bullish or cautious about HF Sinclair? If you want to move quickly and base your view on the underlying data, take a closer look at the balance of 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign before you decide where you stand.

  See What Else Is Out There

  HF Sinclair’s thin 1.5% net margin, prior loss making quarters, and premium 24.3x P/E versus peers highlight earnings volatility that can unsettle long term holders.

  If that kind of profit swing keeps you on edge, take a few minutes to scan 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores and focus on businesses with steadier fundamentals and less earnings whiplash.

  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com