Assessing Organon (OGN) Valuation After 2025 Earnings Weakness And New Revenue Guidance

What Organon’s latest earnings mean for shareholders

Organon (OGN) released fourth quarter and full year 2025 results that showed lower sales, a quarterly net loss, and sharply reduced full year net income. The company also provided 2026 revenue guidance and affirmed a small quarterly dividend.

See our latest analysis for Organon.

Organon’s latest results, including the quarterly net loss and lower full year net income, come after a mixed stretch for investors. The 30 day share price return shows a decline of 14.84%, while the 3 month share price return is 4.63%. The 1 year total shareholder return shows a decline of 49.96%, and the 3 year total shareholder return shows a decline of 67.80%, pointing to pressure that predates this earnings update.

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With Organon trading at $7.46 after a steep 1 year decline and sitting below the average analyst price target of $9.21, the key question now is whether this weak earnings print offers value or if the market already sees limited future growth priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 20.3% Undervalued

Organon’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $9.36, compared with the latest close at $7.46, setting up a valuation gap that hinges on future execution.

The biosimilars portfolio is outperforming expectations, underpinned by accelerating adoption (for example, Hadlima's growth, new launches such as Tofidence, and a strong pipeline including Henlius denosumab). This is viewed as providing a sustainable pathway to top-line expansion while benefiting from industry-wide momentum toward biosimilars as key biologics lose exclusivity.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what underpins that valuation gap? The narrative leans heavily on earnings compounding, firmer margins, and a future profit multiple that stays well below typical sector levels.

Result: Fair Value of $9.36 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are clear pressure points here, including heavy exposure to off patent legacy drugs and ongoing restructuring costs, which could cap any improvement in margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Organon narrative.

Next Steps

Uncertain about how to weigh those mixed signals and the split between risks and rewards? Take a closer look at the data now, including 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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