Assessing Natera (NTRA) Valuation After Launch Of EDEN Preeclampsia Risk Study

Natera (NTRA) recently announced EDEN, a large prospective study evaluating its non invasive prenatal screening test for early preeclampsia risk, prompting fresh investor attention on how this research effort might influence the stock.

See our latest analysis for Natera.

The EDEN study and upcoming earnings update arrive after a mixed spell for the shares, with a 1 day share price return of 2.43% at US$211.25 contrasting with a 30 day share price return decline of 8.65%. This sits alongside a much stronger 1 year total shareholder return of 22.39%, while the 3 year total shareholder return is a very large gain of around 3.4x.

If this kind of healthcare genetics story has your attention, it could be worth scanning 25 healthcare AI stocks as another way to spot companies turning data and diagnostics into real world applications.

With shares up around 3.4x over three years but recent returns turning softer, the question now is whether Natera is still trading below its estimated value or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 17.9% Undervalued

At a last close of $211.25 versus a narrative fair value of about $257, the current price sits below what the most followed model suggests. This puts extra focus on the assumptions behind that gap.

Investment in new product launches (e.g., Fetal Focus NIPT, Signatera Genome, AI-based biomarkers) and a robust R&D pipeline positions Natera to capture growth from long-term trends in personalized medicine and early detection, underpinning future revenue expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

For readers interested in what kind of revenue trajectory and margin shift would support that higher value, and what sort of future earnings multiple it leans on, the full narrative lays out a specific earnings path and valuation bridge that sit behind this 17.9% gap.

Result: Fair Value of $257.20 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this depends on continued trial success and regulatory or reimbursement approvals. At the same time, rising R&D and SG&A spending could keep profitability under pressure for longer.

Find out about the key risks to this Natera narrative.

Another View: Price To Sales Paints A Tougher Picture

The narrative model, our DCF work and analyst targets lean toward Natera looking slightly undervalued. However, the market is already paying a rich P/S of 13.8x versus about 7.3x for peers, 11.3x for the US Biotechs industry and a fair ratio of 8.4x. How comfortable are you with that premium if growth or profitability timing shifts?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If the mix of optimism and concern here feels familiar, this may be a good moment to review the underlying data yourself and decide where you stand, starting with 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you are weighing your next move after reading about Natera, this is the moment to broaden your watchlist rather than wait on the sidelines.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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