Backlog Surge And New Aker BP Deal Could Be A Game Changer For Noble (NE)

• Noble Corporation’s recent updates showed that it completed multiple share repurchase programs, reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of US$764.41 million and net income of US$86.64 million, and confirmed a US$0.50 per-share dividend for the first quarter of 2026.
• At the same time, Noble lifted its total contract backlog to US$7.50 billion on the back of US$1.30 billion in new awards since October 2025, including a three-year Aker BP deal in Norway with an estimated EBITDA potential of about US$240 million.
• With this surge in new contract awards and backlog growth, we’ll now examine how these developments reshape Noble’s existing investment narrative.

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Noble Investment Narrative Recap

To own Noble, you need to be comfortable with a cyclical offshore driller whose appeal rests on contract visibility and disciplined capital returns. The latest US$1.30 billion of awards and US$7.50 billion backlog strengthen the key near term catalyst: better revenue visibility despite softer market conditions. At the same time, the main risk remains weaker utilization and day rates into 2026, and this update does not fully remove that concern.

The most relevant update here is Noble’s 2026 revenue guidance of US$2,800 to US$3,000 million, which sits against the expanding backlog and recent Aker BP win. For me, it frames how much of that US$7.50 billion backlog may actually convert into sales over the next year, and how much cushion Noble could have if offshore demand or pricing stays under pressure longer than investors might like.

Yet behind the growing backlog, investors should also be aware of the risk that...

Read the full narrative on Noble (it's free!)

Noble's narrative projects $3.5 billion revenue and $351.2 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Noble's forecasts yield a $33.60 fair value, a 23% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were assuming Noble could reach about US$3.8 billion of revenue and roughly US$466 million of earnings, which is a far more upbeat view than consensus and could shift further as the new contracts and backlog are fully reflected in updated forecasts, especially given how concentrated some of the recent contract wins appear to be.

Explore 10 other fair value estimates on Noble - why the stock might be worth as much as 83% more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Noble research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Noble research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Noble's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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