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    Did Oasis’ US$122 Million MTN Buy After Weak Ski Season Just Reframe Vail’s Resilience Story?

    Simply Wall St·02/18/2026 05:28:24
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    • In the fourth quarter of 2025, Oasis Management disclosed buying 833,500 Vail Resorts shares, lifting its stake by about US$122.66 million despite season-to-date skier visits falling 20% and related lift, ski school, and dining revenues also declining due to below-average snowfall.
    • This sizable purchase by a professional investor, even after a weak ski season, highlights differing views on Vail Resorts’ longer-term business resilience and earnings power.
    • We’ll now examine how Oasis Management’s increased stake, despite sharply lower skier visits, may influence Vail Resorts’ existing investment narrative.

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    Vail Resorts Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Vail Resorts, you need to believe its network of destination mountains and pass products can support resilient earnings even when weather and visitation are weak. The Oasis Management purchase underscores that not all investors see a poor snow year as changing that core thesis. However, the 20% drop in skier visits keeps weather and demand timing as the most immediate risks, with the upcoming earnings release remaining the key short term catalyst. The Oasis move itself does not materially change that.

    The most relevant upcoming event is Vail Resorts’ fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release on 9 March 2026. With skier visits down sharply and ancillary revenues under pressure, this call will give investors fresh detail on how management is tracking against its FY2026 net income guidance of US$201 million to US$276 million and its US$100 million cost efficiency program, both of which are central to the current investment narrative.

    Yet beneath Oasis’s vote of confidence, the real risk investors should be aware of is how sensitive Vail’s earnings still are to...

    Read the full narrative on Vail Resorts (it's free!)

    Vail Resorts' narrative projects $3.3 billion revenue and $326.6 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.7% yearly revenue growth and about a $36.5 million earnings increase from $290.1 million today.

    Uncover how Vail Resorts' forecasts yield a $174.18 fair value, a 26% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MTN 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    MTN 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Before this weak season, the most optimistic analysts were assuming revenue would reach about US$3.5 billion and earnings roughly US$389.6 million, which is far more upbeat than consensus and sits uncomfortably against the latest weather driven setback and the concern that Vail’s heavy reliance on season pass models could limit growth if broader ski demand softens.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Vail Resorts - why the stock might be worth as much as 86% more than the current price!

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.