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To own State Street, you generally need to believe in its role as core financial plumbing, with durable fee income from custody, ETFs, and cash management. In the near term, the key catalyst is how effectively it grows higher-value fee businesses while managing cost discipline, with a major risk being fee compression and tech competition across asset servicing and platforms. The MMK launch and Mariner’s adoption of Charles River look directionally positive, but not individually transformative to this near term setup.
Among recent developments, the most directly relevant is the launch of the State Street Prime Money Market ETF (MMK). It extends State Street’s large cash franchise, giving clients ETF access to short term, high quality debt at an 18 bps fee. For investors focused on catalysts, MMK sits at the intersection of fee mix, cash balances, and competitive positioning in liquidity products, which all tie back to the pressure point of ongoing fee compression.
Yet investors should be aware that fee compression and rising tech competition could matter far more than headline product launches...
Read the full narrative on State Street (it's free!)
State Street's narrative projects $14.7 billion in revenue and $3.5 billion in earnings by 2028.
Uncover how State Street's forecasts yield a $143.60 fair value, a 12% upside to its current price.
While consensus sees steady progress, the most optimistic analysts were already assuming revenue of about US$14.7 billion and US$3.0 billion in earnings, so this kind of product-led fee growth could either reinforce or challenge those expectations once the impact of MMK and related cash initiatives becomes clearer.
Explore 4 other fair value estimates on State Street - why the stock might be worth as much as 31% more than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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