Assessing Mission Produce (AVO) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum

Why Mission Produce is on investors’ radar

Mission Produce (AVO) has drawn fresh attention after a period of strong share performance in the past 3 months, prompting investors to reassess how its avocado focused model fits into their portfolios.

See our latest analysis for Mission Produce.

That recent 30 day share price return of 16.0% and 90 day share price return of 26.36% come on top of a 19.45% one year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has picked up after a tougher five year stretch.

If Mission Produce’s move has you thinking about other areas of the market, this could be a good time to check out 23 top founder-led companies as potential new ideas.

With the shares up sharply in recent months and trading at $14.43 versus analyst targets around $17.33, the key question now is simple: is Mission Produce still undervalued, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.5% Undervalued

Mission Produce’s most followed narrative places fair value at $17.50 versus the recent $14.43 close, so the market price sits below that narrative view.

Expansion into proprietary farming and new produce categories strengthens vertical integration, boosts profit potential, and positions the company for long-term earnings growth.

Ongoing expansion of proprietary farming especially rising blueberry and mango acreage provides Mission Produce with higher value, vertically integrated supply and unique category positions, boosting gross profit and long-term earnings potential as these new crops scale.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of earnings path and margin shift has to play out for that fair value to stack up? The narrative leans on a specific profit profile, a tighter share count and a richer future earnings multiple than the broader food sector. Curious how those moving parts fit together and what has to go right mathematically for $17.50 to make sense?

Result: Fair Value of $17.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on weather cooperating in key growing regions and fruit pricing holding up, as climate shocks or sharper price pressure could quickly undercut that $17.50 case.

Find out about the key risks to this Mission Produce narrative.

Another View: Earnings Multiple Sends A Different Signal

The fair value narrative points to $17.50 as an undervalued outcome, but the current P/E of 27.1x tells a more cautious story. It sits above the US Food industry at 24.4x and well above a fair ratio of 17.1x, even though it is below peer levels at 59.2x. Is the market already baking in a lot of good news here?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If the mixed signals here leave you unsure, treat that as your cue to look under the hood yourself and move quickly while interest is building. You can weigh those potential upsides directly by checking the 3 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Mission Produce has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not looking back wishing you had acted earlier.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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