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    Why C.H. Robinson (CHRW) Is Down 10.5% After AI Disruption Jitters Hit Freight Margin Outlook

    Simply Wall St·02/17/2026 19:21:16
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    • C.H. Robinson Worldwide recently faced heavy selling pressure as investors reacted to concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting traditional freight logistics models and to weaker freight margin expectations, while the Board affirmed a regular quarterly cash dividend of US$0.63 per share payable on April 2, 2026.
    • The company, alongside supportive analysts, has underscored its long-running investment in AI tools and capital returns to argue that its technology and operating model are positioned to benefit from, rather than be displaced by, automation in freight transportation.
    • With these AI disruption concerns now front and center, we'll examine how they interact with C.H. Robinson's AI-focused investment narrative and margin ambitions.

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    C.H. Robinson Worldwide Investment Narrative Recap

    To own C.H. Robinson here, you need to believe its asset light, AI enabled brokerage model can stay relevant even as automation pressures traditional intermediaries. The recent AI driven selloff and cut to near term margin expectations sharpen, rather than change, the key near term catalyst: execution on AI productivity and pricing. The biggest risk now is that rapid advances in agentic AI or new platforms compress brokerage margins faster than C.H. Robinson can adapt.

    The Board’s decision to affirm a regular US$0.63 quarterly dividend for April 2, 2026, matters in this context because it signals ongoing commitment to capital returns while the market debates whether AI is a threat or an accelerant to the business. Paired with the existing US$2.0 billion share repurchase authorization and recent buybacks, this reinforces that management is still returning cash even as investors reassess freight margins and earnings power.

    Yet behind this reassuring capital return story, investors should be aware of the risk that rapid AI driven disintermediation could weaken pricing power and...

    Read the full narrative on C.H. Robinson Worldwide (it's free!)

    C.H. Robinson Worldwide's narrative projects $18.4 billion revenue and $677.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.6% yearly revenue growth and about a $143 million earnings increase from $534.3 million today.

    Uncover how C.H. Robinson Worldwide's forecasts yield a $153.36 fair value, a 13% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    CHRW 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    CHRW 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the lowest ranked analysts are far more cautious than consensus, even before this AI scare. They were only assuming about 1.2% annual revenue growth and earnings of roughly US$646.8 million by 2028, which is a much cooler outlook than the more optimistic narrative that emphasizes margin expansion through automation. As this new AI disruption debate plays out, you should expect that both the bullish and bearish stories may evolve in very different directions.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on C.H. Robinson Worldwide - why the stock might be worth 31% less than the current price!

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.