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    How O’Reilly’s 2025 Results, 2026 Outlook, and Buybacks Will Impact O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Investors

    Simply Wall St·02/17/2026 18:28:07
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    • O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. reported past fourth-quarter 2025 sales of US$4.41 billion and net income of US$605.23 million, capping a year in which sales reached US$17.78 billion and net income US$2.54 billion, alongside continued share repurchases.
    • The company coupled these results with plans for 225–235 net new store openings in 2026 and guidance for higher 2026 revenue and earnings per share, underpinned by recent expansion, a new Virginia distribution center, and completion of a long-running buyback program totaling US$27.35 billion.
    • Against this backdrop of higher earnings and firm 2026 guidance, we’ll examine how O’Reilly’s expansion plans reshape its investment narrative.

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    O'Reilly Automotive Investment Narrative Recap

    To own O’Reilly, you need to believe its dense store network and distribution engine can keep parts on shelves at attractive margins, even as costs and competition rise. The latest results and 2026 guidance reinforce that story but do not materially change the near term catalyst of execution on store expansion, or the key risk that tariff and supply chain shifts could pressure product costs and margins.

    The most relevant update here is O’Reilly’s plan to open 225 to 235 net new stores in 2026, on top of 207 net openings in 2025 and a new Virginia distribution center. This expansion directly ties into the growth catalyst of widening its footprint and inventory reach, while also increasing exposure to the risk that higher labor and occupancy expenses could lift SG&A and weigh on profitability if cost inflation persists.

    Yet beneath the solid guidance, investors should be aware that rising store level wage and occupancy costs could eventually...

    Read the full narrative on O'Reilly Automotive (it's free!)

    O'Reilly Automotive's narrative projects $20.5 billion revenue and $3.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 6.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.6 billion earnings increase from $2.4 billion today.

    Uncover how O'Reilly Automotive's forecasts yield a $105.72 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ORLY 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ORLY 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts were already penciling in about US$21.3 billion of revenue and US$3.4 billion of earnings by 2028, but the new 2026 expansion and guidance may either support that faster growth view or highlight how longer term threats like electric vehicles could make those forecasts too bold, so it is worth weighing how differently you might see the road ahead.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on O'Reilly Automotive - why the stock might be worth as much as 29% more than the current price!

    Decide For Yourself

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.