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    Assessing Blackbaud (BLKB) Valuation After Profitability Return Early Rule Of 40 Win And 2026 Guidance

    Simply Wall St·02/16/2026 22:13:26
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    Blackbaud (BLKB) has just reported a return to profitability for both the fourth quarter and full year 2025, achieved its Rule of 40 goal earlier than planned, and issued new revenue guidance for 2026.

    See our latest analysis for Blackbaud.

    Despite the earnings rebound and early Rule of 40 achievement, Blackbaud’s recent share price performance has been weak, with a 30 day share price return showing an 11.54% decline and a 1 year total shareholder return showing a 38.56% loss. This suggests fading momentum even as the business updates its guidance and completes a long running buyback program.

    If this update has you reassessing where growth and stability might come from next, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with our 23 top founder-led companies.

    With Blackbaud now profitable again, trading at a discount to the average analyst price target and carrying a mixed track record of returns, you have to ask yourself: is there real value on the table here, or is the market already counting on future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 17.9% Undervalued

    At a last close of $49.08 against a narrative fair value of $59.80, Blackbaud is framed as undervalued, with that gap tied directly to future cash flow expectations and discount rate assumptions rather than short term sentiment.

    The shift toward cloud-based SaaS subscription models and improvements in operational efficiency, including automation and AI-driven internal initiatives, are lowering costs and improving gross and net margins, providing significant leverage to long-term earnings growth.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what sits behind that margin story and the 9.7% discount rate applied to Blackbaud's future cash flows, including how earnings, revenue and valuation multiples are stitched together to reach a $59.80 fair value? The full narrative lays out the specific growth path, profitability targets and valuation lens that underpin this undervaluation call, and joining the dots across those assumptions can help you judge whether they line up with your own expectations.

    Result: Fair Value of $59.80 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, you still need to weigh the risk that competition and evolving customer needs pressure pricing power and revenue, while ongoing AI and security spending limits margin progress.

    Find out about the key risks to this Blackbaud narrative.

    Build Your Own Blackbaud Narrative

    If you are not fully on board with this storyline or simply prefer to lean on your own research, you can build a tailored view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Blackbaud research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If Blackbaud has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Your next strong contender might be waiting just a few minutes of focused research away.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.