The nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 33%. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 53% loss during that time.
Even after such a large drop in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about nCino's P/S ratio of 3.2x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Software industry in the United States is also close to 3.6x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
View our latest analysis for nCino
nCino could be doing better as it's been growing revenue less than most other companies lately. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S ratio from falling. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on nCino will help you uncover what's on the horizon.The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like nCino's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 12% gain to the company's revenues. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 57% overall rise in revenue, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing revenues over that time.
Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 7.0% during the coming year according to the analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 32% growth forecast for the broader industry.
With this information, we find it interesting that nCino is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
Following nCino's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Given that nCino's revenue growth projections are relatively subdued in comparison to the wider industry, it comes as a surprise to see it trading at its current P/S ratio. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for nCino that you need to take into consideration.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on nCino, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.