Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Is Down 6.8% After Mixed Earnings And Higher Dividend Target - Has The Bull Case Changed?

• Restaurant Brands International Inc. recently reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing higher revenue of US$2.47 billion for the quarter and US$9.43 billion for the year, but lower net income, alongside an increased quarterly dividend of US$0.65 per share and a 2026 annual dividend target of US$2.60.
• At the same time, the company advanced its international push with a new joint venture in Burger King China, backed by a US$350 million capital injection, while confronting weaker Popeyes performance and slower U.S. Burger King remodels that highlight uneven momentum across its brand portfolio.
• We’ll now examine how the stronger international Burger King performance and higher dividend target affect Restaurant Brands International’s investment narrative.

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Restaurant Brands International Investment Narrative Recap

To own Restaurant Brands International, you need to be comfortable with a portfolio story where strong international Burger King and Tim Hortons results offset weaker brands like Popeyes, while higher leverage and thinner margins are managed carefully. The latest earnings and dividend increase support the near term catalyst of continued system wide sales and operating income growth, but they do not fundamentally change the biggest risk right now, which is margin pressure from costs and uneven performance across the banners.

The most relevant recent announcement here is the US$350 million capital injection into the Burger King China joint venture, with RBI retaining a 17% stake and a board seat. This directly ties into the core catalyst of international, franchise led expansion that can grow system wide sales with relatively modest capital needs from RBI itself, even as the company slows costly US remodels and works through pressure at Popeyes.

But against this backdrop of international growth and a higher dividend, investors should also be aware of...

Read the full narrative on Restaurant Brands International (it's free!)

Restaurant Brands International's narrative projects $10.1 billion revenue and $2.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 3.5% yearly revenue growth and a $1.1 billion earnings increase from $862.0 million today.

Uncover how Restaurant Brands International's forecasts yield a $78.31 fair value, a 18% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$43 to US$86.61 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. Some of these investors are clearly weighing Burger King’s rapid international expansion as a key driver of the company’s future performance, so it is worth comparing several of their perspectives before forming your own view.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Restaurant Brands International - why the stock might be worth 35% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Restaurant Brands International Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Restaurant Brands International research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Restaurant Brands International research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Restaurant Brands International's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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