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    Does Fortive’s (FTV) Buyback And Recurring Revenue Push Hint At A Shifting Risk Profile?

    Simply Wall St·02/15/2026 19:24:33
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    • In early February 2026, Fortive Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of US$1,122.5 million with continuing operations EPS edging higher year on year, even as full-year net income fell to US$579.2 million on modestly higher sales of US$4,159.1 million.
    • Alongside these results, Fortive completed a multi-year buyback program totaling 43,483,303 shares for US$2,734.24 million, while management highlighted expanding recurring revenue and strong demand in its Fluke and international businesses as key contributors to operational momentum.
    • We’ll now examine how Fortive’s recurring revenue expansion and Q4 earnings resilience shape the company’s investment narrative and risk profile.

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    Fortive Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Fortive, you need to believe that its higher mix of recurring software and services and solid brands like Fluke can offset earnings volatility from more cyclical segments and tariff or policy shocks. The latest results showed Q4 sales growth and higher EPS from continuing operations, but full year net income dropped, so they do not materially change the near term catalyst, which remains execution on recurring revenue growth, or the key risk around softer government and healthcare spending.

    The most relevant recent announcement is Fortive’s completion of its multi year US$2,734.24 million buyback, retiring 43,483,303 shares. This program, alongside modestly higher 2025 sales of US$4,159.1 million, matters for the catalyst narrative because it increases the impact of any future earnings progress on per share figures, while also sharpening the potential downside if concentration, tariff or Advanced Healthcare Solutions pressures weigh on profitability.

    Yet investors should also be aware that if government and healthcare spending stay weaker for longer, Fortive’s recurring growth ambitions could face...

    Read the full narrative on Fortive (it's free!)

    Fortive's narrative projects $4.5 billion revenue and $741.9 million earnings by 2028. This implies a 9.8% yearly revenue decline and a $27.0 million earnings decrease from $768.9 million today.

    Uncover how Fortive's forecasts yield a $58.12 fair value, in line with its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    FTV 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    FTV 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts were assuming earnings of about US$730.7 million by 2028 with a much higher PE, which is far more upbeat than the tariff and end market risks highlighted here and may look different in light of Fortive’s latest Q4 results.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Fortive - why the stock might be worth just $58.12!

    Build Your Own Fortive Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.