Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE:KNSL) Just Released Its Full-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

It's been a mediocre week for Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE:KNSL) shareholders, with the stock dropping 10% to US$371 in the week since its latest annual results. Kinsale Capital Group reported US$1.9b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$21.65 beat expectations, being 3.9% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Kinsale Capital Group from nine analysts is for revenues of US$1.95b in 2026. If met, it would imply a credible 3.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 5.8% to US$20.39 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$20.46 in 2026. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Kinsale Capital Group

The average price target was steady at US$442even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kinsale Capital Group at US$478 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$385. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Kinsale Capital Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Kinsale Capital Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 27% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 128 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Kinsale Capital Group is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. The consensus price target held steady at US$442, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Kinsale Capital Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Kinsale Capital Group's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.