Lyft (LYFT) Is Down 19.4% After Record Profit, New Buyback And Safety Concerns - Has The Bull Case Changed?

• In February 2026, Lyft reported full-year 2025 results showing US$6,316.26 million in sales and very large net income, while also announcing a new US$1 billion Class A share repurchase program and filing a US$337.72 million shelf registration for 20,042,798 ESOP-related shares.
• At the same time, weaker-than-expected quarterly guidance and widespread coverage of two fatal shootings of Lyft drivers in Cleveland raised fresh questions about the balance between growth, profitability and safety on the platform.
• Next, we’ll explore how record profitability alongside cautious guidance and a large buyback may reshape Lyft’s investment narrative for long-term investors.

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Lyft Investment Narrative Recap

To own Lyft today, you need to believe its record 2025 profitability and growing rider base can offset fierce competition, regulatory uncertainty and now heightened safety concerns. The latest earnings brought strong headline numbers but softer guidance and a rare driver operating loss, while two fatal driver shootings in Cleveland put culture and safety in focus. Whether those incidents materially alter near term demand or regulatory risk is still unclear, but they sharpen the key risk to watch.

The new US$1,000 million Class A share repurchase program is the most relevant recent announcement here, because it directly intersects with the near term catalyst of earnings quality and capital discipline. Against a backdrop of a large one off tax benefit, cautious EBITDA guidance and a fresh US$337.72 million ESOP related shelf filing, the size and timing of this buyback give investors more to weigh when thinking about how cash returns, growth investment and safety spending fit together.

Yet behind the headline profits and large buyback, there is a safety and regulatory risk that investors should be aware of...

Read the full narrative on Lyft (it's free!)

Lyft's narrative projects $8.7 billion revenue and $324.2 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Lyft's forecasts yield a $24.06 fair value, a 81% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before this news, the most pessimistic analysts were already assuming only about US$7.8 billion in 2028 revenue and roughly US$209 million in earnings, so if you worry about rising regulatory and safety costs they offer a useful counterpoint to more optimistic views that this buyback and recent profitability will prove durable.

Explore 13 other fair value estimates on Lyft - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Lyft Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Lyft research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Lyft research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Lyft's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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