Is It Time To Reassess Hinge Health (HNGE) After Recent Share Price Swings?

• If you are trying to figure out whether Hinge Health at around US$38.94 is a bargain or already pricing in big expectations, you are in the right place.
• The stock has been volatile recently, with a 24.9% gain over the last 7 days, a 10.1% decline over 30 days, and a 14.5% decline year to date, which can shift how investors think about both risk and upside.
• Recent news coverage has focused on Hinge Health's position in digital musculoskeletal care and how investors are reacting to its growth story against the broader healthcare sector. This context helps explain why the share price has moved sharply in a short space of time, as sentiment reacts to how the business model and market opportunity are being perceived.
• Hinge Health currently scores 4 out of 6 on our valuation checks. We will break this down using earnings, revenue and asset based approaches, before finishing with a different way of thinking about valuation that can tie all of these methods together.

Hinge Health delivered 0.0% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Healthcare industry.

Approach 1: Hinge Health Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to today’s value.

For Hinge Health, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, starting from last twelve month free cash flow of about $164.8 million. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for several years and Simply Wall St then extrapolates further out, with projected free cash flow of $446.0 million in 2030. All cash flows are assessed in US$.

Those annual projections, including discounted estimates such as $201.7 million for 2026 and $318.3 million for 2030, are brought back to today using a required return on equity. This results in an estimated intrinsic value of $155.11 per share. Compared with the current share price of around $38.94, the DCF output suggests the stock is about 74.9% undervalued on this model.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Hinge Health is undervalued by 74.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 53 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Hinge Health.

Approach 2: Hinge Health Price vs Sales

For companies where earnings are not the main focus, the P/S ratio can be a useful way to think about valuation because it compares the share price to the revenue the business is generating, rather than to current profits.

What counts as a reasonable P/S ratio typically reflects how quickly investors expect revenue to grow and how much risk they see in that growth. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty can pull it down.

Hinge Health is currently trading on a P/S of 5.21x. That is higher than the Healthcare industry average of 1.27x and above the peer group average of 2.88x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Hinge Health is 5.72x, which is a proprietary estimate of what the P/S might be given factors such as the company’s growth profile, margins, size, sector and key risks. This tailored measure can give more context than a simple comparison with peers or the overall industry, because it adjusts for the company’s own characteristics.

Since the current P/S of 5.21x is below the Fair Ratio of 5.72x, the P/S approach points to Hinge Health looking undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Hinge Health Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St's Community page you can build or follow a Narrative, which is your own Hinge Health story that ties your assumptions about future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value to the current share price. It updates automatically as new news or earnings land and helps you decide whether the price looks high or low. For example, one investor might lean closer to the higher analyst fair value around US$72.00, while another aligns with the lower end near US$48.00. Yet both are using the same simple tool to connect their view of the business to a clear, comparable fair value estimate.

Do you think there's more to the story for Hinge Health? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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