Did FedEx’s (FDX) Freight Spin‑Off and InPost Stake Just Redefine Its Capital‑Light Strategy?

• In recent days, FedEx used its 2026 Investor Day to outline financial targets through 2029, confirm the planned June 1 spin‑off of FedEx Freight, reaffirm a quarterly dividend of US$1.45 per share payable on April 1, 2026, and announce a planned 37% stake in European parcel carrier InPost alongside new digital and data partnerships.
• Together, these moves point to FedEx sharpening its focus on higher‑margin business lines, capital‑light partnerships, and data‑driven network efficiency as it reshapes its global logistics footprint.
• We’ll now examine how FedEx’s Freight spin‑off plan and European InPost investment could reshape the company’s existing investment narrative.

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FedEx Investment Narrative Recap

To own FedEx, you have to believe its network transformation, cost programs, and shift toward higher‑margin segments can offset industrial softness, pricing pressure, and Freight separation risk. The latest Investor Day targets and the confirmed June 1 Freight spin‑off sharpen that story but also concentrate attention on execution as the key near‑term catalyst, while restructuring costs and any stumble in the spin‑off process remain the most immediate risk.

Among the recent announcements, FedEx’s long term financial targets through 2029 are most relevant here. Management is framing a path to US$93.5 billion in revenue and US$5.27 billion in operating income for FY 2026, rising to US$98 billion revenue and US$8 billion operating income by 2029. How well FedEx delivers against those milestones, particularly as Freight separates and the InPost stake is integrated, is likely to shape how investors judge today’s transformation efforts.

But even with these ambitions, investors should be aware that execution risk around the Freight spin‑off and restructuring costs could...

Read the full narrative on FedEx (it's free!)

FedEx's narrative projects $95.1 billion revenue and $5.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 2.6% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.1 billion earnings increase from $4.1 billion today.

Uncover how FedEx's forecasts yield a $306.54 fair value, a 18% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming revenue near US$97.3 billion and earnings of US$5.7 billion by 2028, so if you believe FedEx’s cost discipline can truly become a permanent advantage, that is a much rosier story than the consensus view and one that the latest spin‑off and InPost news could ultimately reshape in either direction.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on FedEx - why the stock might be worth 23% less than the current price!

Build Your Own FedEx Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your FedEx research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free FedEx research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate FedEx's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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