Service Corporation International (SCI) Is Down 6.4% After Cautious 2026 Outlook Tempers Solid 2025 Results

• In February 2026, Service Corporation International reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with Q4 sales of US$1,111.53 million and net income of US$159.40 million, and full-year revenue of US$4.31 billion alongside higher basic and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations versus 2024.
• Alongside these results, management issued cautious 2026 guidance and highlighted flat to slightly lower funeral volumes, rising selling costs, and a shift in sales compensation and digital investments that could influence how its earnings profile evolves.
• We’ll now examine how this cautious 2026 guidance, especially expectations for flat to slightly lower funeral volumes, affects Service Corporation International’s investment narrative.

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Service Corporation International Investment Narrative Recap

To own Service Corporation International, you need to be comfortable with a slower growing, cash generative deathcare business that leans on pricing, preneed sales and acquisitions rather than surging volumes. The latest results and cautious 2026 outlook, including flat to slightly lower funeral volumes and rising selling costs, reinforce that earnings progress may be gradual, while the key near term risk is pressure on margins if costs outpace modest revenue growth, which this update does not materially change.

Management’s 2026 earnings guidance of US$4.05 to US$4.35 per share is the clearest recent signal for how they see near term performance balancing modest revenue growth, cost inflation and continued investment in digital initiatives and cemetery inventory. For investors watching catalysts, that range now serves as a reference point for assessing whether acquisitions, preneed cemetery sales and any eventual recovery in funeral volumes can offset structural headwinds like mix shift toward cremation.

But while earnings guidance offers some near term clarity, investors should also be aware of the longer term pressure that rising cremation rates could place on...

Read the full narrative on Service Corporation International (it's free!)

Service Corporation International's narrative projects $4.7 billion revenue and $656.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $121.5 million earnings increase from $534.9 million today.

Uncover how Service Corporation International's forecasts yield a $97.83 fair value, a 23% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community fall between US$97.83 and US$104.11, suggesting private investors see SCI as meaningfully above the current share price. Set against management’s cautious 2026 outlook and flat to slightly lower funeral volumes, this spread of views highlights why it can be useful to compare several independent perspectives on SCI’s earnings potential.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Service Corporation International - why the stock might be worth just $97.83!

Build Your Own Service Corporation International Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Service Corporation International research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Service Corporation International research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Service Corporation International's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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