Why Pegasystems (PEGA) Is Up 9.3% After Strong 2026 Outlook and Bigger Buyback Plan – And What's Next

• Pegasystems recently reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing higher revenue and profit than a year earlier, issued 2026 guidance for US$2.0 billion in GAAP revenue and US$1.87 in GAAP diluted EPS, and lifted its share repurchase authorization by US$1.00 billion while extending the program to June 2027.
• The period also saw the completion of a long-running buyback program and the overturning of a very large legal verdict, together reshaping Pegasystems’ risk profile and capital return capacity.
• We’ll now examine how the stronger 2026 revenue guidance and expanded buyback authorization may influence Pegasystems’ existing investment narrative.

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Pegasystems Investment Narrative Recap

To own Pegasystems, you need to believe its AI‑driven automation and Pega Cloud ACV growth can offset revenue volatility, complex deal structures, and intensifying competition. The stronger 2026 US$2.0 billion GAAP revenue and US$1.87 GAAP EPS guidance, combined with higher free cash flow and an expanded buyback, supports the near term catalyst around recurring cloud growth, while the biggest current risk remains revenue lumpiness and pricing pressure as enterprises weigh bundled suites from larger rivals.

The most relevant announcement here is Pegasystems’ additional US$1.00 billion share repurchase authorization and extension to June 2027, on top of completing its long running 2008 program after buying back 26.6 million shares. For investors focused on catalysts, this meaningfully reinforces the existing narrative around disciplined capital returns and balance sheet strength, but does not remove key risks tied to AI competition, macro uncertainty in Europe, and the shift toward subscription revenue.

Yet behind the upbeat guidance and larger buyback, investors should be aware of how revenue volatility and competitive pressure could still...

Read the full narrative on Pegasystems (it's free!)

Pegasystems' narrative projects $1.9 billion revenue and $292.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $72 million earnings increase from $220.2 million today.

Uncover how Pegasystems' forecasts yield a $73.91 fair value, a 69% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before this news, the most pessimistic analysts only saw revenue climbing to about US$1.9 billion and earnings to roughly US$263 million, so if you worry about hyperscalers squeezing Pegasystems out of large accounts, it is worth comparing that cautious view with the stronger 2026 guidance and asking how your own expectations might shift.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Pegasystems - why the stock might be worth as much as 78% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Pegasystems Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Pegasystems research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Pegasystems research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Pegasystems' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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