President Trump's Tariffs To Face Feb.20 Supreme Court Hearing As Prediction Markets Doubt Favorable Ruling

The U.S. Supreme Court has scheduled Feb. 20 for opinions, moving up the timeline for a potential ruling on President Donald Trump‘s sweeping tariff regime.

Polymarket traders see just a 28% chance the Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump’s tariffs. The case could trigger refunds exceeding $130 billion and reshape American trade policy.

Who’s Fighting For Refunds

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST) filed a lawsuit in December seeking a complete refund of all duties collected under IEEPA.

The retailer joins Revlon Consumer Products Corp. (NYSE:REV), Kawasaki Motors Manufacturing Corp. (OTC:KWHIY), Alcoa Corp. (NYSE:AA), EssilorLuxottica SA (NYSE:EL), and Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NASDAQ:GT) in challenging the tariffs.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE), while not plaintiffs, face acute exposure given their Asian manufacturing base.

Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT) and Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE:BBY) remain heavily dependent on Chinese imports for home goods and electronics.

Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE:TM) and Honda Motor Co. (NYSE:HMC) rely on integrated North American supply chains where tariffs on parts crossing the Mexican border are hitting earnings.

The Numbers

The cost of these duties is hitting home: U.S. households face an average tax increase of $1,000 in 2025, rising to $1,300 in 2026.

On the revenue side, the numbers are massive. CBP data shows the U.S. collected over $200 billion in tariffs between Jan. 20 and Dec. 15, 2025 alone.

The Tax Foundation estimates the total 2025 customs haul at $264 billion, though after accounting for economic drag, the government’s net gain is closer to $132 billion.

Looking ahead, the tariffs are projected to generate $171.1 billion in 2026 (0.54% of GDP), marking the largest federal tax increase since 1993.

What Happens Next

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Nov. 5, 2025. The 91-day wait is significantly longer than typical expedited cases.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the administration could “recreate the exact tariff structure” using Section 232, Section 301, or Section 122 authorities if it loses.

Bessent previously said that if the Court rules against the administration, “it will be some kind of a mishmash of ‘you can do this; you can’t do that.'”

The S&P 500 saw its worst days since 2020 following Trump’s April 2025 “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, when the Nasdaq lost 1,600 points in the worst sell-off since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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