Assessing Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness

Las Vegas Sands recent performance snapshot

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has drawn investor attention after a mixed run, with the stock showing a 1.5% daily decline, modest movement over the past week, and weaker returns over the past month and past three months.

See our latest analysis for Las Vegas Sands.

At a share price of US$56.83, Las Vegas Sands has had a softer patch recently, with a 30 day share price return of a 5.1% decline and a 90 day share price return of a 13.1% decline. This has occurred even as the 1 year total shareholder return sits at 37.4%, suggesting that recent momentum has faded compared with longer term gains and that the market may be reassessing growth prospects or risk around its Macao and Singapore resort operations.

If this shift in sentiment has you looking beyond casinos, it could be a good time to scan 21 elite gold producer stocks as another way to research opportunities tied to global tourism and discretionary spending.

So with Las Vegas Sands trading at US$56.83 after a soft few months but carrying a 1 year total shareholder return of 37.4%, is the current price a chance to buy in, or is the market already factoring in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.7% Undervalued

With Las Vegas Sands last closing at $56.83 against a narrative fair value of $65.85, the widely followed view sees room between current pricing and its long term earnings potential.

The full opening and ramp-up of The Londoner in Macao, with its 2,405 rooms and suites, is expected to boost revenues and cash flows significantly as the property leverages its scale and quality in a competitive market. Marina Bay Sands (MBS) in Singapore reported record EBITDA from high-value tourism and is expected to continue its growth trajectory supported by increased visitor capacity post-renovations, directly impacting revenue and EBITDA growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue path and margin profile need to line up for that fair value to hold? The narrative leans on specific growth forecasts, a tighter share count, and a future earnings multiple that differs from what the market is using today. The exact mix of those inputs may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $65.85 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on Macau gaining traction and premium mass competition not eroding revenue or margins, particularly if visitation and gaming spend remain uneven.

Find out about the key risks to this Las Vegas Sands narrative.

Another view on Las Vegas Sands valuation

The fair value of US$65.85 presents Las Vegas Sands as undervalued, but our DCF model suggests the opposite, with an estimate of US$28.09. One approach focuses on earnings power, while the other emphasizes future cash flows. Which perspective do you consider more useful when real money is on the line?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Las Vegas Sands for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 55 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Las Vegas Sands Narrative

If you are not on board with this view or simply want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom thesis in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Las Vegas Sands research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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