Why Qualys (QLYS) Is Down 18.0% After Soft 2026 Outlook Tempers Strong 2025 Results

• In early February 2026, Qualys reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of US$175.28 million and full-year 2025 sales of US$669.13 million, with higher net income and earnings per share than a year earlier, while also expanding its share repurchase authorization to US$1.60 billion and issuing 2026 revenue and earnings guidance.
• Alongside highlighting stronger non-GAAP profitability and growing adoption of its agentic AI-powered risk management offerings, Qualys' outlook for slower 2026 revenue growth compared with 2025 became a key focus for investors assessing the company’s trajectory.
• We’ll now examine how Qualys’ more moderate 2026 revenue guidance reshapes its existing investment narrative built around AI-driven pre-breach risk management.

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Qualys Investment Narrative Recap

To own Qualys, you need to believe its agentic AI and pre breach risk platform can remain relevant even as customers weigh consolidation with larger security providers. The key near term catalyst is whether Qualys can translate current AI driven interest into sustained bookings growth, while the main risk is that slower 2026 revenue guidance signals pressure on its ability to keep up with fast moving competitive offerings. The recent guidance meaningfully sharpens investor focus on that tension.

The expanded US$1.60 billion share repurchase authorization stands out here, as it intersects directly with these questions around growth and competitive pressure. While buybacks do not address product or go to market risks, they can influence how per share metrics evolve if revenue growth moderates from 2025 levels. Against the backdrop of guidance calling for 7% to 8% revenue growth in 2026, this larger buyback pool has become more central to how some investors frame the near term risk reward.

Yet behind Qualys’ strong 2025 profitability, investors should be aware of how slower 2026 growth guidance could interact with intensifying competition and...

Read the full narrative on Qualys (it's free!)

Qualys' narrative projects $789.6 million revenue and $199.0 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Qualys' forecasts yield a $143.24 fair value, a 37% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest estimate analysts were already assuming only about 4.5 percent annual revenue growth and margin compression, so this guidance may reinforce their more cautious view on hyperscaler competition and make you rethink how much confidence to place in higher growth scenarios.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Qualys - why the stock might be worth just $113.00!

Build Your Own Qualys Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Qualys research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Qualys research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Qualys' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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