Blackbaud, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Last week saw the newest yearly earnings release from Blackbaud, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLKB), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$1.1b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Blackbaud surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.37 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Blackbaud from five analysts is for revenues of US$1.18b in 2026. If met, it would imply a credible 4.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 25% to US$3.13. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.18b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.49 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a considerable lift to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

See our latest analysis for Blackbaud

The consensus price target fell 22% to US$59.80, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Blackbaud analyst has a price target of US$74.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$50.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Blackbaud's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.4% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Blackbaud.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Blackbaud's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Blackbaud's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Blackbaud. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Blackbaud analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Blackbaud is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.