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    Did Earnings Compression Amid Heavy Buybacks Just Shift CNO Financial Group's (CNO) Investment Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·02/11/2026 13:25:18
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    • CNO Financial Group, Inc. reported past fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of US$1,143.1 million, up from US$1,097.2 million a year earlier, while net income fell to US$92.9 million and full-year earnings and earnings per share from continuing operations also declined despite slightly higher revenue.
    • Alongside these results, CNO completed a long-running share repurchase program totaling 180,243,503 shares for about US$3.34 billions, underscoring continued capital return even as reported net income moved lower.
    • We’ll now examine how CNO’s earnings compression alongside significant share repurchases may influence its previously outlined, balanced 2025 investment narrative.

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    CNO Financial Group Investment Narrative Recap

    To own CNO Financial Group, you need to be comfortable with a slower growth, income-oriented insurer that is actively reshaping its capital base through buybacks while managing earnings volatility. The latest results show modest revenue growth but significantly lower net income and compressed margins, so the key short term catalyst now rests on whether underlying profitability stabilizes, while the main risk remains pressure on returns if investment income or claims trends move against the company. If that risk does not materialize, this quarter’s earnings drop may not alter the longer term thesis.

    The completion of CNO’s long-running share repurchase program, totaling roughly US$3.34 billion for more than 180 million shares, ties directly into this catalyst by increasing the importance of future earnings quality on a smaller equity base. For investors, that makes it especially important to watch how management balances ongoing capital returns with the need to protect margins and maintain adequate coverage of interest costs after a year of weaker net income and lower profit margins.

    Yet investors should be aware that if interest rates stay low or decline again, CNO’s investment income and already compressed margins could...

    Read the full narrative on CNO Financial Group (it's free!)

    CNO Financial Group's narrative projects $4.3 billion revenue and $432.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires a 0.8% yearly revenue decline and a $143.5 million earnings increase from $288.7 million today.

    Uncover how CNO Financial Group's forecasts yield a $47.25 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    CNO 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    CNO 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    The single fair value estimate from the Simply Wall St Community sits at US$47.25, showing how one private investor currently frames CNO’s potential. Against that, recent earnings compression and thinner profit margins underline why many market participants may want to stress test their own expectations for CNO’s ability to sustain returns while continuing capital returns.

    Explore another fair value estimate on CNO Financial Group - why the stock might be worth just $47.25!

    Build Your Own CNO Financial Group Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.