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    Does Strong Q1 Earnings And Buybacks Change The Bull Case For National Fuel Gas (NFG)?

    Simply Wall St·02/10/2026 11:16:21
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    • National Fuel Gas Company recently reported past first-quarter 2025 results showing revenue of US$651.51 million and net income of US$181.65 million, both higher than the prior-year period, while also confirming its 2026 production guidance of 440 to 455 Bcf and completing a US$118.29 million share repurchase program begun in March 2024.
    • The sharp year-over-year increase in earnings per share from continuing operations, with basic EPS rising to US$1.99, highlights a significant improvement in profitability that may influence how investors assess the company’s operations and capital allocation.
    • We will now examine how this sharp improvement in quarterly earnings shapes National Fuel Gas Company’s investment narrative, particularly around its profitability profile.

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    What Is National Fuel Gas' Investment Narrative?

    For someone considering National Fuel Gas today, the core belief is that a regulated and midstream-focused gas business with experienced leadership can keep turning steady operations into shareholder returns. The latest quarter’s jump in revenue and EPS, together with confirmation of 2026 production guidance at 440 to 455 Bcf, reinforces the idea that recent profitability is not a one-off event but part of a more stable earnings profile. Completing the US$118.29 million buyback, after several quarters of no additional repurchases, adds to that picture of disciplined capital allocation, although the scale is modest relative to the company’s size and recent share price gains. In the near term, the main catalysts still sit around sustaining earnings quality and managing a high debt load, and this news does little to reduce that balance sheet risk.

    However, investors should not ignore how the company’s high debt level could limit its options in a tougher market. National Fuel Gas' shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued by 12%. Find out what it's worth.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    NFG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NFG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    Five fair value views from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$40 to US$140 per share, underlining how differently investors can frame National Fuel Gas. Set that against the recent earnings strength and ongoing leverage risk, and it becomes clear you are weighing solid profitability against a capital structure that could matter more if conditions tighten.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on National Fuel Gas - why the stock might be worth as much as 65% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own National Fuel Gas Narrative

    Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.