Assessing Venture Global (VG) Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound And 17.1% Undervaluation Estimate

Venture Global overview after recent price moves

Venture Global (VG) has drawn attention after a recent share price move, with the stock closing at US$10.17 and showing mixed return patterns across the past week, month and past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for Venture Global.

Recent moves sit on top of a much bumpier year, with a year to date share price return of 44.46% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 40.50%, suggesting recent momentum has not yet fully repaired earlier losses.

If Venture Global’s recent share price rebound has caught your eye and you want to see what else is moving in energy infrastructure, take a look at our 24 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks as a starting list of ideas.

With revenue of US$10,848 and net income of US$2,064, plus a recent 40.66% 30 day return, the key question is whether Venture Global is still undervalued or if the market is already pricing in its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 17.1% Undervalued

Using the most followed narrative, Venture Global’s fair value of $12.26 sits above the recent $10.17 close, putting the current rebound in a different light.

Expansion of long duration SPAs with utilities and national energy companies in Europe and Asia, combined with increasing portfolio flexibility across multiple terminals, should stabilize cash flows and reduce earnings volatility while supporting incremental upside on uncontracted cargos.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of growth profile and margin path could back this valuation gap? The narrative leans on firm volume assumptions and a richer earnings multiple than the sector. The real tension sits between expected cash flow stability and a very different earnings level a few years out. If you want to see how those moving parts are stitched together, the full narrative lays it all out.

Result: Fair Value of $12.26 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this story could change quickly if Calcasieu Pass arbitration outcomes require large cash settlements, or if LNG supply growth squeezes liquefaction spreads faster than expected.

Find out about the key risks to this Venture Global narrative.

Build Your Own Venture Global Narrative

If parts of this story do not sit right with you, or you prefer to work from your own data view, you can build a custom thesis for Venture Global in just a few minutes by starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Venture Global research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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