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    Timken (TKR) Is Up 13.8% After Mixed Q4 Results And 2026 Guidance Pivot - Has The Bull Case Changed?

    Simply Wall St·02/09/2026 00:21:36
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    • The Timken Company reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of US$1,111 million, up from US$1,073.6 million a year earlier, while net income eased to US$62.3 million and diluted EPS from continuing operations was US$0.89.
    • Alongside modest full-year sales growth and lower 2025 earnings, Timken outlined 2026 guidance for higher revenue and EPS and highlighted an expanded 80/20 portfolio effort to exit underperforming businesses.
    • Next, we’ll examine how Timken’s 80/20 portfolio expansion and 2026 earnings guidance shape the company’s evolving investment narrative.

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    What Is Timken's Investment Narrative?

    To own Timken, you have to believe in a steady, industrial bearings and motion business that can translate modest top line growth into better profitability over time. The latest results showed Q4 and full‑year 2025 earnings under pressure, but management’s 2026 guidance for higher revenue and EPS, plus the expansion of its 80/20 portfolio effort, signals a renewed push to improve mix and exit weaker operations. In the near term, the key catalysts now revolve around execution on those exits, evidence of margin traction, and how the new leadership team beds in. The completed US$628.56 million buyback and ongoing dividend increases show a clear capital return mindset, which partially offsets concerns around high debt and softer recent earnings. Overall, the new guidance meaningfully reframes both the upside drivers and the execution risks.

    Timken's shares are on the way up, but they could be overextended by 14%. Uncover the fair value now.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TKR 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TKR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community cluster tightly around US$92–93 per share, highlighting how even private investors can converge. Set that against Timken’s new 2026 earnings guidance and portfolio reshaping, and you see why views on its ability to lift margins and manage debt can still diverge widely.

    Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Timken - why the stock might be worth as much as $93.05!

    Build Your Own Timken Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.