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    Cullen/Frost (CFR) Deepens Capital Returns and Texas Expansion: Credible Growth Story or Peak Cycle?

    Simply Wall St·02/08/2026 19:09:55
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    • Cullen/Frost Bankers recently reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing higher net interest income and net income year over year, alongside board approval of continued common and preferred dividends and a new US$300 million share repurchase program.
    • The company also refreshed its board with the addition of experienced executives Marsha M. Shields and Jeff Rummel, while highlighting Texas-focused branch expansion, strong organic customer growth, and historically high levels of new commercial loan commitments.
    • With these results and the new US$300 million buyback in view, we will examine how this shapes Cullen/Frost’s investment narrative.

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    What Is Cullen/Frost Bankers' Investment Narrative?

    To own Cullen/Frost, you need to be comfortable with a regional bank whose story is built around Texas-focused growth, steady profitability and disciplined capital returns, even while it trades on richer earnings multiples than many peers. The latest results reinforce that narrative: net interest income and net income both increased year over year, credit costs eased with lower net charge-offs, and the board backed that confidence with a fresh US$300 million buyback and continued common and preferred dividends. The addition of Marsha Shields and Jeff Rummel modestly strengthens governance and risk oversight, but is unlikely to change near term catalysts as much as loan demand, deposit pricing and margin trends will. The bigger watchpoints remain valuation, slower forecast revenue and earnings growth, and how credit quality holds up from here.

    However, one risk in particular could catch shareholders off guard if conditions shift. Cullen/Frost Bankers' shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued by 16%. Find out what it's worth.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    CFR 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    CFR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four fair value views from the Simply Wall St Community span from about US$119 to a very large upper estimate, underlining how far apart opinions can be. Set against Cullen/Frost’s richer earnings multiple, slower expected growth and fresh US$300 million buyback, it is worth weighing how different assumptions about margins and credit costs could affect your own expectations for the bank’s performance.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Cullen/Frost Bankers - why the stock might be worth 19% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own Cullen/Frost Bankers Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.