A Look At St. Joe (JOE) Valuation As Fairholme Trims Its Highly Concentrated Position

Fairholme Fund’s latest N-PORT filing shows it trimmed its stake in St. Joe (JOE) by 104,100 shares, yet the stock still represents 87.04% of the portfolio. This raises questions about concentration and risk.

See our latest analysis for St. Joe.

At a share price of $68.56, St. Joe has seen a 10.99% 1 month share price return and a 17.16% 3 month share price return, while its 1 year total shareholder return stands at 48.10%, suggesting momentum has been building even as Fairholme trims its position.

If this concentration story has you thinking about diversification, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with our 22 top founder-led companies.

With St. Joe trading at $68.56 and an estimated intrinsic discount of 19.62%, the key question is whether investors are looking at a genuine value gap or at a market that already expects stronger growth ahead.

Preferred P/E of 37.8x: Is it justified?

St. Joe is trading at $68.56 and sits on a P/E of 37.8x, which the data suggests is cheaper than close peers but more expensive than the broader US Real Estate industry.

The P/E ratio compares the share price with earnings per share and is a quick way of seeing how much investors are paying for each dollar of profit. For a real estate development and hospitality group like St. Joe, a higher P/E can reflect expectations that current earnings are being supported by a growing project pipeline and operating footprint rather than one off profits.

Against its direct peer set, St. Joe is flagged as "good value" on a 37.8x P/E compared with a 44.2x peer average. This points to a lower earnings multiple than similar companies. At the same time, that 37.8x P/E is described as "expensive" versus the US Real Estate industry average of 28.2x. This is a clear signal that the market is currently willing to ascribe a richer earnings multiple than the sector as a whole.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 37.8x (ABOUT RIGHT)

However, that story can shift quickly if real estate demand cools or if hospitality and commercial assets underperform, given St. Joe’s highly concentrated business mix.

Find out about the key risks to this St. Joe narrative.

Another View: DCF Points To A Different Price

While the P/E of 37.8x presents St. Joe as valued more highly than the wider US real estate group, our DCF model estimates a fair value of $85.29 per share, around 19.6% above the current $68.56 price. It is not clear which signal the market will favor next.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out St. Joe for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own St. Joe Narrative

If you think the data tells a different story, or you simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a full view in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your St. Joe research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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