Tuya (NYSE:TUYA) Valuation Check After AI Toy Platform And Product Showcase At Spielwarenmesse 2026

Tuya (NYSE:TUYA) is back on investors’ radar after Spielwarenmesse 2026, where it highlighted AI-powered toys like the Nebula Plush AI Toy, AI robotic dogs, AI Clocks, and an end-to-end AI toy development platform.

See our latest analysis for Tuya.

Despite the product buzz, Tuya’s 1 year total shareholder return of about 37% decline and 3 year total shareholder return of about 24% decline show longer term pressure. The 1 month share price return of 8% decline suggests momentum has recently been fading from the current US$2.07 level.

If this AI toy push has caught your attention, it might be a good time to see what else is happening across smaller AI names using our screener for 56 profitable AI stocks that aren't just burning cash.

With Tuya trading at about US$2.07, a value score of 4, and some intrinsic and analyst target discounts showing on screeners, the real question is whether the recent weakness signals an opportunity or if markets already see the AI toy growth story coming.

Most Popular Narrative: 37.6% Undervalued

The most followed narrative sees Tuya’s fair value at $3.32, well above the recent $2.07 close, and anchors that view on its AI centric IoT platform.

The continued global proliferation of IoT devices, evidenced by strong growth in developer numbers, cross-category AI adoption, and expansion into new product verticals (such as AI energy solutions, toys, and pet care), positions Tuya to benefit from expanding end markets, which should drive sustained top-line growth and increased diversification of revenue streams.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what sits behind that fair value call? The narrative leans on steady revenue compounding, rising margins, and a future earnings multiple more often tied to mature software names.

Result: Fair Value of $3.32 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there is still the risk that global trade tensions and rising competition in AIoT platforms could squeeze margins and weaken the earnings story backing that valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Tuya narrative.

Build Your Own Tuya Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to work from your own data points, you can build a personalised Tuya story in just a few minutes by starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Tuya research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you stop with just one stock, you might miss opportunities that better fit your goals. Consider broadening your watchlist with a few focused, data driven ideas.

• Spot potential value by checking companies that screen well on quality and valuation through our list of 55 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Strengthen your income focus by scanning for reliable payers using our screener of 15 dividend fortresses.
• Prioritise resilience by reviewing companies highlighted in our 79 resilient stocks with low risk scores that emphasises lower risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com