Wabash National Q4 Loss And EPS Volatility Challenge Bullish Low P/E Narrative

Wabash National (WNC) closed out FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$321.5 million and basic EPS of a US$1.23 loss, compared with Q4 FY 2024 revenue of US$416.8 million and a basic EPS of a US$0.02 loss. Over recent periods, revenue has moved from US$464.0 million in Q3 2024 to US$380.9 million in Q1 2025, then to US$458.8 million in Q2 2025 and US$381.6 million in Q3 2025. EPS has swung sharply from a US$7.53 loss in Q3 2024 to US$5.41 in Q1 2025 before settling at US$0.98 in Q3 2025. For investors, the wide earnings range keeps attention on how much of this volatility reflects underlying margin pressure versus one-off items.

See our full analysis for Wabash National.

With the latest figures on the table, the next step is to compare these swings in revenue and EPS with the key market narratives that have built up around Wabash National over the past year.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

Trailing EPS swings while 12 month profit stays positive

• On a trailing 12 month basis, Wabash National shows Basic EPS of US$5.09 on US$1.5b in revenue, even though the latest single quarter, Q4 2025, recorded a Basic EPS loss of US$1.23 on US$321.5 million in revenue.
• What stands out for a cautious view is that this move to trailing profitability sits alongside very sharp quarter to quarter earnings swings, such as Q1 2025 EPS of US$5.41 and Q3 2024 EPS loss of US$7.53, which bears often point to when they question how dependable the profit trend really is.
  • Those bears focus on the fact that trailing net income of US$211.5 million follows recent quarters that ranged from a US$330.2 million loss in Q3 2024 to a US$230.9 million profit in Q1 2025, a wide band for a relatively stable revenue base.
  • They argue that when profit can swing from a US$49.9 million loss in Q4 2025 to a US$40.0 million profit in Q3 2025, investors need to pay close attention to what is driving earnings rather than treating the 12 month profit as a smooth run rate.

Low 2.1x P/E versus peers at 28.2x

• The shares trade on a trailing P/E of 2.1x, compared with 40.1x for peers and 28.2x for the broader US Machinery industry, even though the company reports trailing net income of US$211.5 million.
• Supporters of a more optimistic view often highlight this big P/E gap and the fact that earnings grew at 7.7% a year over five years, yet the current share price of US$11.04 is well above the DCF fair value of about US$2.47, which creates tension for that bullish angle.
  • On one hand, the 7.7% annual earnings growth rate over five years, combined with current trailing EPS of just over US$5, gives bulls a concrete profitability track record to point to when they argue the 2.1x P/E looks low versus an industry multiple above 28x.
  • On the other hand, critics of that bullish argument point out that if the DCF fair value is US$2.47 per share while the stock trades at US$11.04, investors cannot rely only on the low P/E without also considering what the cash flow profile is implying about long term value.

To see how the latest profit swing squares with that low P/E and DCF fair value, check how other investors frame the full story around Wabash National. 📊 Read the full Wabash National Consensus Narrative.

Profits strong, cash and dividend coverage weaker

• Over the last 12 months, Wabash National moved to trailing net income of US$211.5 million with a 2.9% dividend yield, while at the same time showing that debt is not well covered by operating cash flow and that dividends are not well covered by free cash flow.
• What worries more bearish investors is that a high portion of earnings is non cash in nature and debt coverage from operating cash flow is flagged as weak, so the solid trailing earnings and dividend yield do not automatically translate into the strong cash backing they would usually look for.
  • Those skeptics point to the combination of low P/E at 2.1x and limited operating cash coverage of debt as a sign that the market may be treating some of the US$211.5 million in trailing net income as lower quality than simple accrual profit suggests.
  • They also highlight that a 2.9% dividend which is not well covered by free cash flow means part of the shareholder payout currently rests on cash that is thinner than the accounting earnings, which can weigh on confidence in the payout if conditions change.

Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Wabash National's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

See What Else Is Out There

Wabash National's sharp earnings swings, weaker cash and debt coverage, and dividend not well covered by free cash flow highlight several pressure points in the financial foundation.

If those balance sheet and cash flow concerns give you pause, use our solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (388 results) today to focus on companies built on stronger financial footing and more dependable support for shareholder returns.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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